At Any Rate

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM assets of the large vol shock and increasingly late-cycle market moves.

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4362300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan held its 14th Global EM Corporate Conference in Miami (March 6-8).  We provide a 15 minute summary of the main takeaways, highlight of survey results, and regional color from the conference.   

 

Speakers:

YM Hong, Head of EM Corporate Strategy

Alisa Meyers, EM Corporate Strategy

Natalia Corfield, Latin America Corporate Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4356352-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March. 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4354826-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss a round-up of FX views from recent meetings, refresh the global FX recessionary playbook, and look at recent developments for USD, EUR, JPY & CAD.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357220-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We developed a news-based machine learning framework for finding what themes are driving the FX vols. The framework also complements traditional techniques of judging if FX vol is rich or cheap and is currently suggesting that FX vol as an aggregate is mildly cheap.

The framework currently identifies inflation as the most significant concern that investors remain most sensitive to, with commodities, central banks, market conditions and rates also been notable factors on that cross-section of news flows and FX vol beta to that news, but jobs only nominal / negligible.

We monitor 28 SmartTag categories of macro risk across global news reports and capture their changes in volume and anxiety (inverted tone). We test the sensitivity of each category against the VXY (as a proxy to FX risk) and identify what investors seem to be currently most sensitive to. Any category that tests significantly positive we mark as a “Category of Concern” (CoC) and measure how much it is contributing to (or reducing) our inferred risk.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4335589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX US and rates markets heading into key US event risk.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351568-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Ikue Saito.

This podcast was recorded on Feb 27, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4333234-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4332014-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4323617-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4303279-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343744-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343845-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss commodities demand in China and how hopes for a strong China reopening have given way to concerns about falling cargo shipments, building commodity inventories and lackluster sales of homes and cars. While China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for all commodities higher, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most this year. Global LNG, metals and several ags markets are set to benefit later in the year and enjoy a full recovery in 2024.

 

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340793-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX ahead of a possibly pivotal month.  

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4344557-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4329269-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest fundamental and market developments in EM fixed income.

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4343228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.