At Any Rate

Global Commodities: OPEC+ preview: another cut, complicated by record US production. Communication as important as action.

OPEC+ alliance is scheduled to meet in Vienna this weekend amid continued weakness in crude’s price structure—both flat price and time spreads—along with increased speculative short positioning. On paper, and assuming no recession, OPEC’s April cuts should suffice to tighten oil balances in the second half of the year. Yet, so far the promise of future bullish supply tightening has not convinced the market of rising oil prices. It will take evidence in the physical markets (e.g., backwardation) to confirm what our balances imply before oil price can stabilize and begin to grind higher. For that, the alliance—or at least some members—would likely need to cut more. Communication is just as important as action in terms of market reaction to any cut. To avoid fueling the prevailing market narrative, it is important to stress that demand growth continues to be robust. Rather, there is simply too much supply. 

 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

US Rates: What the debt ceiling resolution means for rates markets

In this podcast, we discuss how the passage of debt ceiling legislation and the attendant rise in the TGA is likely to impact US rates markets.

 

Speakers

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy

Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4424256-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: The summer price slide

The healthy cushion in storage created by a mild winter for the European natural gas market has now put it on a direct path for storage congestion, potentially as early as August. Strong LNG imports amid weaker-than-anticipated global LNG demand and lackluster industrial demand even at lower prices continue to contribute to these fears of storage congestion. In this episode, we discuss our view for the slide in European natural gas price – a potential soft price floor that can emerge with lower prices encouraging demand - particularly in the power sector. 

 

Speaker
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4413200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income Focus: Good HY (local) vs bad HY (hard currency)

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and the divergence in performance between the local and hard currency pockets of the asset class.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 25 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4421835-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: OECD oil inventories begin to draw

We see no fundamental shift in the parameters of our forecast. Our supply-demand estimates point to a largely balanced market in January through April and a first deficit in May—a view confirmed by the latest IEA report which shows that after eleven months of builds, OECD commercial oil stocks drew 14 million barrels in February, followed by a hefty 56 mn bbls draw in March. With demand resilient and world oil supply set to fall starting from this month as wildfires shut in Canadian barrels and voluntary OPEC+ cuts take effect, we continue to project further tightening in the balances in the second half of the year. Consequently, our pricing model continues to screen $90 Brent, a target that remains our price forecast.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417827-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX : Winds of change

Arindam and Meera discuss the abrupt loss in China’s growth momentum and implications for CNH, EUR and the broad dollar.

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417140-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income Focus: EM alpha competes with beta for attention

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and analyse how the overall volatility environment is impacting on the alpha and beta components of returns.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 May 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4414718-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX : Big risks, narrow base-cases

Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the risks facing global FX, and discuss recent developments across GBP, CHF, NOK and CAD.

 

Speakers
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408998-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX : Fearing fear itself

Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid banking sector stress and debt ceiling jitters in the US.

 

This podcast was recorded on 05 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4406134-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Precious metals outlook outshines base

Speaker
Gregory Shearer, Executive Director, Global Commodities Research  

 

Gold prices continue to mount a seemingly Sisyphean climb to break above all-time highs getting knocked lower again by a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for April. In contrast, base metals prices have slumped more notably in the last few weeks as Chinese demand remains underwhelming and recession uncertainties keep investors on the sideline. While gold and silver prices will likely continue to chop in a range until more certainty is gained on the Fed’s future rate hiking plans we still think the long-term direction of travel is higher. On the other hand, copper and other base metals could be in for a bumpier ride in the coming months.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.