At Any Rate

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss J.P. Morgan’s bullish forecast update for gold and silver prices and recent activity in the market including unprecedented levels of central bank purchases. While we have held a constructive view on gold and silver since last September, rebounds in the prices of both metals since late last year have outpaced our expectations as the US dollar weakened more than expected.  The recent post-payrolls jump higher in the US dollar  triggered some technical breaks in gold and silver taking some built up froth out of gold prices in particular.  However, we do not think its a game changer with both metals appearing poised to continue pushing higher in the coming quarters. Marking our price forecasts to market and embedding the latest JPM base case for falling US real yields and a largely neutral US dollar, we have upgraded our 2023 gold and silver price forecasts by around 10% and now see gold prices rising to average $2,045/oz in 4Q23 with silver increasing to an average of $26.6/oz.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

FX strategists Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.

This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332305-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest macro trends and idiosyncratic developments driving EM fixed income assets.

Speakers

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 3 February 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325612-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM

 

This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325568-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0.pdf, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4324128-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The US Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that in the first eleven months of 2022, American drivers used 10 kbd less gasoline than in the corresponding period the year before and 540 kbd less fuel than in 2019—a surprisingly weak outcome given that Americans collectively traveled more last year than in 2021 and drove a similar amount of miles as in 2019. We see a modest increase in US gasoline demand in 2023 and a further improvement in 2024, but given the structural shifts in the US gasoline market, peak gasoline demand now appears to have been 9.85 mbd, set in August 2019. A structural decline in US gasoline consumption will reverberate globally given US gasoline accounts for 9% of global oil demand. The implications will be both on refining—via a mismatch in supplies of products and price spikes—and the quality of crude as focus of refiners shifts from fuels to chemicals and from crude to natural gas liquids as a feedstock.  

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321829-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook ahead of next week’s central bank meetings.

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318937-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by John Royall, Head of the US Integrated Oils & Refining equity research team to discuss the outlook for refined oil products like diesel ahead of the February 5 European embargo on imports of Russian oil products. Brent oil price has gained 13% from the bottom reached on January 4 to trade at $88/bbl, $5 above our model-derived fair value for January. While optimistic demand expectations from China’s reopening have helped oil regain December losses, we believe soaring middle distillate prices and cracks are mostly behind crude’s bullish price action. We expect volatility in distillate cracks and prices in 1Q23 around embargo implementation but see market imbalances clearing by 2Q23 and risk premium dissipating as Europe and Russia had a year to prepare. 

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

John Royall, Head of U.S. Integrated Oils & Refining equity research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318088-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss positioning in EM fixed income assets and whether this could put the brakes on performance in the near term.

This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, Tohru Sasaki and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook after this week’ BOJ meeting.

This podcast was recorded on 20 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4313340-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Parsley Ong and Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss the implications of an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy and recent revisions to our global natural gas outlook. While investors so far have chosen to play China’s reopening through metals, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most. We upgrade China oil demand but maintain our Brent price forecast for the year at $90/bbl and see prices  averaging $85 in 1Q, scaling up to $89 in 2Q and exiting the year at $94. Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023. Meanwhile, a bullish narrative for global natural gas markets is hard to maintain when winter weather struggles to appear – particularly when supply is plentiful.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy and Chemicals Equities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 Jan 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4311885-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.