At Any Rate

Oil experienced a bumpy ride in March as prices plunged mid-month on fears that weakness in the banking system could spark a full-blown recession.  Consequently, 1Q23 will likely close $3/bbl below our forecasted price of $85. Looking at the very near term, Brent at below $80 looks at least $5-7 oversold purely on fundamental reasons. What could act as a catalyst?

 

Speakers 
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on Mar. 31, 2023.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4370703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent events in the banking system and its implications for the US Rates and Derivatives markets.

 

Speakers: 

Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369801-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US strategists Patrick Locke & Phoebe White discuss this week’s Fed meeting, bank sector borrowing, and G10 inflation trends.

This podcast was recorded on 24th March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369375-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the  impacts of the recent global banking stress on EM fixed income.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4368246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook following the eruption of banking sector stress in the US and Europe.

 

Speakers

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 17 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4363526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The sudden failure of SVB and Signature Bank forced a rethink about the health of the broader economy and spooked markets. Brent lost $11/bbl (15%) of its value over the last 10 days to settle at $74.70 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since December 2021. In the US, WTI futures tumbled to $66 in New York on Friday. For comparison, over the same period, S&P 500 equity futures slumped 3.6%, and copper prices edged 3.3% lower. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic stayed largely flat, while gold rose near 7%. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Greg Shearer to discuss the volatility in commodity markets and the outlook for 2Q23.  

 

Speakers 
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on Mar. 17, 2023.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4358592-0, and  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359550-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM assets of the large vol shock and increasingly late-cycle market moves.

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4362300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan held its 14th Global EM Corporate Conference in Miami (March 6-8).  We provide a 15 minute summary of the main takeaways, highlight of survey results, and regional color from the conference.   

 

Speakers:

YM Hong, Head of EM Corporate Strategy

Alisa Meyers, EM Corporate Strategy

Natalia Corfield, Latin America Corporate Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4356352-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March. 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4354826-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss a round-up of FX views from recent meetings, refresh the global FX recessionary playbook, and look at recent developments for USD, EUR, JPY & CAD.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357220-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.