At Any Rate

We discuss the FX implications for an event-laden week. US exceptionalism, European growth weakness and an incredibly slow BoJ pivot are the main themes.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4470939-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Drivers are paying more at the pump around the world. Prices for gasoline and other oil products like diesel and jet fuel have been rising in the US, Europe and Asia, as have been product cracks. The unwelcome shift higher in pump prices follows a jump in oil, which has climbed $10 so far in July to three-month highs partly in sympathy with a broader rally in commodities. Still, powerful fundamentals forces are at play in the Atlantic basin, some of them short term and temporary, but some structural and likely permanent.

 

Speakers:  
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4468929-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, discuss how the Mexican peso is undergoing a regime shift and is no longer the high-beta risk appetite currency that it once was.

 

Speakers:

Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research

Saad Siddiqui, Head of EM Local Markets Strategy

Tania Escobedo Jacob, Latin America Local Markets Strategy

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4467683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Treasury supply has been in focus recently as the resolution of the debt limit has brought with it over $700bn in T-bill supply over the last two months. In coming weeks, the focus will shift toward longer-duration supply, as Treasury will likely announce increased coupon auction sizes at the upcoming August refunding. We preview the quarterly refunding announcement with a medium-term perspective toward Treasury issuance, and the implications for rate levels.

Speakers:

John Barry

Phoebe White

This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Catalyzed by the drop in US CPI inflation in June, near-term recession risk has moderated and the focus has shifted closer to the market’s favored scenario of a painless disinflation and economic soft landing. Amidst a broad-based rally in risky assets, commodities stand out as under-valued, under-owned, and backed by compelling fundamentals and technicals—a good entry point for a catch-up tactical allocation. The BCOM index gained 5% in July, but there is likely more where this came from. Should recessionary fears not materialize over the next six months, idiosyncratic risks leave the entire complex exposed to the upside, with the rally in BCOM extending. In order of preference, we favor natural gas, ags, oil and gold, and maintain neutral stance on base metals.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities

Gregory Shearer, Global Commodities

Tracey Allen, Global Commodities

This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The Global FX team previews a loaded week for policy decisions.

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 July 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4465556-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4460975-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss views on EM fixed income markets in the wake of recent data developments and heading into summer.

This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Patrick Locke and James Nelligan from our Global FX Strategy team discuss implications from last week’s outsized USD sell-off.

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

A structural shift is observed in the global energy markets, where big buyers of energy can now buy energy at a discount from sanctioned Russia, Iran and Venezuela, countries that combined represent close to 20% of the global oil exports. Crucially, this oil is now either sold in the local currencies of the buyers or in currencies of countries that are perceived as friendly. Consequently, US dollar now plays a more diminished role in determining oil prices. This de-dollarization trend in the commodity trade is a boon for some EM countries, which can now not only buy oil at a discount but pay for it with their own local currencies. This reduces the need for precautionary reserves of US dollars, US Treasuries and oil, which in turn might free capital to be deployed in growth-boosting domestic projects.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

Jahangir Aziz, EM Economics

This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459447-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.