At Any Rate

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies mid rising global bond yields.

Speakers:

Arindam Sandilya,  Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

OPEC+ has been cutting oil output since November and after Monday’s announcement of additional cuts, the alliance will be holding back more than 4 mbd from the market. Yet the moves have so far failed to significantly tighten balances and lift oil prices, despite demand running above expectations. The group’s recent struggles may reveal a difficult underlying trend: non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand. To fully regain market power this year, we estimate OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7 mbd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions, with the full cut extended into 2024.

 

Speakers:  
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

This podcast was recorded 7/7/2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452093-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast, we discuss the outlook for core inflation over the next 6 months. Though core CPI inflation should moderate toward a 3.0%ar in the three months through September, we anticipate core inflation to stabilize at a 3.2%ar pace during the final three months of the year.

Speakers:

Phoebe White

Michael Hanson

Murat Tasci

This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.  

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4449035-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

 

Speaker:  
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

 

We calculate the incentive price of oil needed to ensure that the world has enough investment—and oil—in 2030 and to close the supply-demand gap of over 4 mbd. Assuming 2% inflation, the low end of the range for the Brent incentive price sits at about $63 based on an IRR of 20%. An IRR of 25% moves the incentive price to $78/bbl. Under a 4% inflation scenario, the range is $80 to $100.

This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381901-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and how much value there is in EM local markets and hard currency bonds.

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446987-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Please join us for a discussion on the major takeaways from the second edition of our annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference, which was held in-person at our offices in London. The conference was attended by approximately 400 investors representing over 100 institutions, with 6 sovereigns and 27 corporate issuers participating.

 

Speakers:

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research

Ayomide Mejabi, Emerging Markets Strategy

Benjamin Ramsey, Emerging Market Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27-June-2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan’s FX strategy team lays out the case for being defensive/ bullish USD going into 2H. Other themes discussed are: bearish views on CNY, GBP, JPY and Scandis; selective exposure to FX carry which remains elevated and opportunities in derivatives.

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4443645-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

2H23 will deliver a continuation of the tightening journey for most of DM central banks, at least over the summer, although differentiation across jurisdictions will emerge as we approach the end of the cycle.

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4445501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

There has been much discussion in the last year over the inability of the existing sovereign debt restructuring architecture to deal with a new wave of sovereign restructurings in a world where China is now the largest bilateral creditor. The end of more than a decade of easy money and global shocks have lead several countries into default and bond markets have priced out market access for a host of others. This has led to a problem of increasing needs to restructure EM sovereign debt, but a larger cast of creditors and no clear restructuring rule-book are causing delays, which have economic and societal costs.  The G20’s Common Framework (CF) aimed to get creditors together, but has stalled for many countries. With a hamstrung effort at new rules, and clear risks of more sovereign stress to come, there are many proposals for ways to improve or fully revamp the debt restructuring architecture. In this podcast, we take a look at the main issues that are troubling the current sovereign restructuring landscape, and review some of the proposed solutions.

 

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist 
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420237-0

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:  
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy 

 

In our 2023 Outlook last November, we forecasted that the oil market would be in surplus in 2023, with fair value for Brent averaging $84, but believed OPEC+ alliance would succeed in balancing the markets, thus scaling up our average price forecast for the year to $90. We no longer believe that to be the case and recently revised our average 2023 price from $90 to $81. We keep the rising price path unchanged, with inventories now starting to draw. Demand is running above expectations: absent a deep recession, global oil consumption will likely rise a solid 1.6 mbd in 2023. However, more than offsetting this, global oil supply is set to increase 2.2 mbd. It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do—incentivize supply. Crucially, non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand since the start of 2022, leaving the OPEC+ alliance having to cut production to balance the markets. Moreover, within the broader OPEC+ alliance, supply has been also rising outside the core members. Invariably, to make room for this supply growth, OPEC+ would need to cut more, were the alliance to adhere to the market management strategy.

 

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4431498-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.