At Any Rate

Global Rates: A round up of hot topics for Euro rate markets

In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.

 

Speakers
Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy 
Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy 
Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666360-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: Go with the flows

This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation.

This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667578-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Commodities Focus: Without counter-measures, oil headed to $100

At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to our price projection may be through $100.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4660256-0 . For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
 

 

Global FX: An uncomfortable setup for USD bulls and bears

Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings.

This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: Fed and BoE rate cuts, see you on the flipside

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.

 

Speakers:
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy
Francis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head of Global Inflation Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656360-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657369-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657417-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Copper — The sleeping giant awakes

Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us bullish on the metal since last December. We retain this bullish medium-term bias but now need micro indicators in China to turn around and begin actually signaling a tight fundamental market to sustain upwards price momentum from here.  With refined copper supply looking most at risk in the coming quarter and Chinese demand entering its seasonal peak period as well, we still think a broader move higher towards our bullish year-ahead target of around $10,000/mt is in the offing, even if the road there is somewhat bumpy.

 

Speakers:  

 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652097-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: EM should rally post Fed

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates, FX & Economics: Will the Scandinavian doves fly?

Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market.

This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Economics: Everything, all at once from BoJ but yen looks away for now

We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655046-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Thoughts on the Feb inflation data, the Fed, and US rates markets

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting beginning in June. Accordingly, we revise higher our Treasury yield forecasts for the balance of the year.

 

Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy 
Michael Feroli,  Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653388-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653424-0 and here; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652552-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.