At Any Rate

Global Commodities: What is a balanced market worth?

As we put a bow on 2023, our view remains that oil demand growth will slow from a very strong 1.8 mbd in 2023 to a still strong 1.5 mbd in 2024, underpinned by a moderating but still resilient global economic expansion and remaining pent-up oil demand. On the supply side, producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance again should drive overall growth in supply—projected at 1.6 mbd—matching growth in demand. All of this means a largely balanced market, with Brent prices averaging $83 for the year. The biggest pushback against our view has not been the balanced supply-demand outlook, but whether a balanced market is indeed worth $80.

 

Speaker:

 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602932-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

EM Fixed Income: It's going to be a long year (again)

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

EM Fixed Income: Türkiye – High Hopes, Continuing Caution

J.P. Morgan’s economics and fixed income strategists discuss the opportunities across local markets, sovereign and corporate credit in Türkiye as the narrative of a policy pivot gains traction.

 

Speakers:

Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM

Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy

Michael Harrison, Emerging Markets Strategy

Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Zafar Nazim, CEEMEA Credit Corporate Research

YM Hong, Emerging Markets Credit Corporate Strategy

Ben Ramsey,  Emerging Markets Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4589700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

In this episode, we discuss the December inflation data, the widening in the CPI/ PCE wedge, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions in the Red Sea on core goods inflation and commodity prices. We review the implications for US rates markets.

 

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy

Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 Jan 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: Spotlight on CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX

We discuss the outlook for the dollar and FX markets with focus on select Asia currencies: CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, FX Strategy and Japan Economics

This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4599991-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: History rhymes

In this episode, we discuss the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. The balance sheet discussion read dovishly, and portends an earlier end to QT than our baseline forecast. We discuss the implication for funding, rates, and MBS markets.

Speakers
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy
Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: It isn’t getting easier in the New Year

We take stock of FX markets at the start of the New Year, discussing the outlook for the broad dollar and other DM currencies.

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594494-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Only one turtle dove is needed for EM assets

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: Central bank outcomes and implications for FX

In our last podcast for the year, we discuss the recent flurry of DM central bank meetings and implications for FX.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4585090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Observational equivalence—$74 in December, high $80s by May

Brent oil price at $74 is $8 too cheap vs our model-derived fair value of $82 for December. Given our optimistic view on demand next year, we see Brent oil trading in the low $80s by March and high $80s by May. We find current oil prices in the lower range of the trading band and see the recent sell-off as a potential buying opportunity—even with thinning liquidity ahead of the holiday period—given our divergence with consensus on fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. Given our outlook on demand, we argue that there is no need for further OPEC cuts were the alliance to accept lower oil prices in the mid-$70s to mid-$80s range. Instead, we believe, the alliance should unwind some of the voluntary reductions in order to gain operational flexibility when demand growth takes a step down in 2025 (and potentially 2026), when most of the post-COVID demand normalization is behind us and decarbonization policies begin to cut into demand for some products.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582283-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.