At Any Rate

Trade negotiations and tariffs continue to roil commodity markets with the Trump administration warning that India and China will face penalties due to their ongoing purchases of Russian oil while also shocking the copper market this week by exempting refined copper cathode from Section 232 duties. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss these developments and how they shape the outlook on prices over the balance of the year.

 

Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

 

This podcast was recorded on August 1, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044362-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the latest developments with stablecoins, how they could or could not influence Treasury demand, and the introduction of tokenized money market funds. 

 

Speakers:  

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy

Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short-Term Fixed Income Strategy

 

 

This podcast was recorded on July 31, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5034932-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4927356-0, & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030616-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss take-aways from the latest ECB meeting as well as expectations on the US-EU tariff negotiations for the outlook of European economy, rates and currency markets. 

 

Speakers:

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy 
Greg Fuzesi, Economic & Policy Research 
Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy 
Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy  

 

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5034766-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5038613-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5038418-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Brent and WTI volatility have reached their lowest levels since April, shifting from a bullish to a bearish put bias. As we look ahead to September, we expect a significant increase in volatility, driven by a convergence of both bullish and bearish factors that are set to take place during that month. Notably, Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Russia is set to expire on September 2, just a day before a new European price cap on Russian crude comes into effect on September 3. Additionally, snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered as early as September 1. Meanwhile, 600 kbd of additional summer demand in the Middle East will dissipate in September at exactly the same time as 4-5 mbd of global refining capacity shuts for fall maintenance.

 

Speaker:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 25, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5036481-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

J.P. Morgan’s Jay Barry, Senior J.P. Morgan research and trading personnel will discuss their expectations for the refunding announcement as well as what it could mean for the Treasury market and swap spreads.

 

Speakers:

Jay Barry - Head of Global Rates Strategy

Phoebe White - US Rates Strategist & Head of US Inflation Strategy

Eric Childs - Head of NA Rates Trading

 

This podcast was recorded on July 23, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5035275-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook in the context of the weekend’s Japan elections, US policy volatility and an upcoming ECB meeting.

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5032510-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Jahangir Aziz discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets.

 

Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Jahangir Aziz - Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on July 18, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030262-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After historic price gains across the cocoa market through 2024, cocoa markets are leading the losses across agri markets through 2025 YTD. The hangover from last year’s 4Q highs in cocoa prices has come to roost, and the long-awaited 2Q25 cocoa grind data has confirmed the demand destruction widely reported by the industry over recent months. However, regional disparities have become more notable. The sharp decline in cocoa prices through July falls in line with our view, amid expectations of demand-side destruction. However, we continue to caution that cocoa prices will remain structurally higher for longer.

 

Speaker
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 18, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5027913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta broadly discuss some summer themes for European rate markets focusing on seasonality in intra-EMU spreads, Eur swap spread views, SSA thoughts and UK gilt yields.

 

Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5025853-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.