At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Beware the Ides of September

We revisit the five conditions outlined in June that are necessary for crude oil prices to start reflecting the expected year-end weakness, and suggest that September could be a turning point for the oil market. Global oil inventories built, but the rise in OECD stocks has been modest by comparison. In response, both Brent and WTI curves have flattened out and turned into a ‘smile.’ Refining margins and runs surged in the third quarter, supporting a rebuilding of global product inventories, though stocks in certain regions and products remain below their five-year averages. As a result, refining margins have eased from their previous stratospheric highs, yet continue to hold up well.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5078020-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for September 2025

Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

 

This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5072575-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

Meera Chandan, Francis Diamond, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss the drivers of yield curve steepening across DM markets, FX implications of fiscal differentiation/ US payrolls and the latest developments in FX hedge ratios.

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Francis Diamond, Global Rates

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5073426-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Risk premium out, storage premium in

Oil prices have been trading at a premium to fair value over the last two months with Brent’s outperformance driven not by geopolitical factors but rather by an lopsided build in global inventories,  with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. While OECD inventories remain the primary driver in our pricing model, only 25% of this year’s global stock build has entered OECD storage, compared to the historical average of 40%, creating a valuation challenge. Mathematically, lower OECD intake raises Brent’s fair value, even as global stocks build, resulting in a storage premium. Looking ahead to 2H25, the key questions are how much spare storage capacity China has—currently about 600 million barrels—and whether China will use excess crude to ramp up processing and export more refined products. For now, stock builds are likely to continue outside price-setting Western markets, and despite higher refinery runs, Chinese product exports remain below last year’s levels as domestic inventories are replenished. Still, given the market’s move toward a sizable surplus and ongoing uncertainty around both the scale and drivers of China’s stock build, we are maintaining our current price forecasts.

 

Speaker:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on September 5, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5066258-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Wake me up when September starts

Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the post-summer investment environment for EM and thoughts around tomorrow's payrolls scenarios.

This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Scandi Rates Outlook

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments and our views in Sweden and Norway rates market. 

 

This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5074338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer

In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest views on Euro area and UK rate market as markets start to move out of summer holiday mode.

 

This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5070106-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Economics, FX and Rates: French political scenarios for macro markets

Meera Chandan, Aditya Chordia and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the various possible outcomes for the French political landscape and discuss implications for the economic/ fiscal, rates and FX markets.

This podcast was recorded on 28 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5068210-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test

This week, our FX Strategists break down the growth/inflation mix in the US and how that’s impacting the dollar, before providing an update on the state of cross-border USD flows and FX hedging. They also provide a recap of recent tactical developments in G10, including the dovish RBNZ surprise and recent data out of the UK.

 

 

Speakers

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5061667-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

European Rates: Euro and UK inflation markets summer update

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Frida Infante discuss the outlook for Euro area and UK inflation over the coming months and their thoughts on HICP and UK RPI inflation markets.  

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 August 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5026778-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.