At Any Rate

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the risks for EM markets of a more stagflationary global environment, resulting from the Russia/Ukraine war.

This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4029173-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

TIPS Strategist Phoebe White and US Economist Peter McCrory discuss the outlook for US inflation.  Given a shift toward more inertial categories of inflation and the escalating conflict in Ukraine, we now expect higher inflation throughout the remainder of this year and into next.  For now, we still look for the Fed to hike 25bp per meeting, beginning next week. We discuss how US inflation markets have reacted to the surge commodities prices. Inflation risk premium has risen along the curve, and market-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations have risen to 7-year highs.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4022518-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4024037-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss the impact of recent geopolitical developments on FX markets. The euro bloc is the most vulnerable, while the dollar and commodity currencies are more insulated. We are recommending shorts in EUR, GBP and SEK vs. longs in USD, CHF and G10 petro FX. Deterioration in risk sentiment would usually be more JPY-supportive, but higher energy prices are an offset.

We also discuss the main take-aways from our FX models. The growth and market regimes have turned outright defensive, and risks to the dollar are skewed asymmetrically stronger. Models were already short EUR to begin with, but magnitude of shorts have increased on growth revisions.

Speakers

Paul Meggyesi, Global FX Strategy

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

 

This was recorded on March 7, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Gregory Shearer, and Tracey Allen to discuss the current state of commodities markets after an exceptionally volatile week given the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict. The team explores the disruption in export volumes, alternative supplies, and demand rationing, as well as potential upside price scenarios if Russian exports are materially disrupted in the coming weeks and months.

 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

 

This podcast was recorded on March 4, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the impact of the major escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict for Emerging Market assets.

This podcast was recorded on February 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014479-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan research analysts (Francis Diamond and Allan Monks) discuss their thoughts on BoE QT and in particular potential gilt asset sales. They discuss the policy drivers and possible size of QT sales as well as thoughts around implications for UK rate markets

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4013981-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to introduce and discuss our commodities inventory monitor. Global commodity inventories have contracted sharply over the past six months. While tradeable commodity stocks are critically low, it is important to acknowledge the abundance of available inventories in leading commodity consumer and importer China, to draw upon as required, which influences global import demand.  

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4008477-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the outlook for EM local yield curves in the face of relentless flattening pressures and a withdrawal of global monetary accommodation. In particular, some yield curves are very flat and inverted even at the short ends, raising questions of whether this is warranted.

This podcast was recorded on February 17, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4007102-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Paul Meggyesi and Meera Chandan from JPM FX Strategy discuss the relevance of the ECB’s hawkish pivot and other central bank development for the foreign exchange markets.

 

This podcast was recorded 14 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4001150-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss our views on Riksbank and Norges bank; how long can the Riksbank resist hikes while how many hikes will the Norges bank deliver this year. We also discuss how our central bank and global views translates in SEK and NOK currency and interest rate markets.

 

This podcast was recorded February 14, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3999144-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3999236-0  , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4001150-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.