At Any Rate

In this podcast we discuss our medium term views on Euro area inflation, its impact on ECB delivery. We also discuss our main trading themes on the German curve, intra-EMU spreads, money market/swap curve, swap spreads, and rates volatility.

 

Speakers

Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy

Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist

Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist

Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4129745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

In this episode of At Any Rate, we say goodbye to negative-yielding debt, which has declined rapidly to just $5.9trn from a peak of $17.2trn in Q1/2020, with Japan now accounting for 78% of the remaining stock. Structural forces pointing to higher real yields, greater macro volatility and faster moving business cycles. Much higher US inflation volatility could easily make inflation average 3-4% over the next decade. A traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation by our estimates prices in ~5% pa return the next decade, up from 3% at the end of 2021, as the market repricing year-to-date has cheapened US bonds and equities, and raised our 10-year out expected returns by 2% pa relative to end-2021. We favor assets where income can rise more with inflation, and where asset prices fall less, favoring Health Care and Financials, EM FX, Commodities (ex-Gold) and market-neutral hedge funds. Commodity-linked assets provide an effective hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation, including livestock, industrial metals, and energy futures with Energy stocks favored over the short run and Global Utility stocks over the long run.

Speakers

Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research

Jan Loeys, Head of Long-term Strategy

Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy

Preetham Nanda, Global Index Research

Peter McCrory, US Economic Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer, Tracey Allen and Ted Hall to discuss the outlook on global commodities. As conditions of acute scarcity persist across all commodities, world is entering the traditional peak demand season with inventories 19% below historical average. This lack of inventory buffer leaves the market vulnerable with outsized impact on prices amidst any shock to supply.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4123032-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Economist Michael Feroli joins US Rates Strategists Jay Barry, Phoebe White and Alex Roever to discuss their thoughts on the June FOMC meeting.

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the outlook for emerging markets for the second half of 2022.

 

This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss supply-demand dynamics in the global fuel market. Western refiners were already shutting down refining capacity before the COVID demand shock drove another 2 mbd of refining capacity closures over the past two years. Sanctions on Venezuela and now Russia have reduced effective capacity in Europe and the US even further. While Russia finds it difficult to find alternative markets for its products, China has cut fuel export quotas by over 50%. With demand set to pick up pace as US driving season kicks off and China comes out of lockdowns, fuel prices will continue to rise until they reach the point of demand destruction.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to discuss the fundamental and price outlook for agricultural markets through 2022-23. The precarious situation of historically high food prices and risks of physical shortages of cereals and vegetable oils over the years ahead presents an immensely challenging outlook for agricultural supply chains and risk management. Historical episodes of food price inflation have typically been driven by supply side shocks, often from adverse weather. For agri markets, this time is different, and far more complex and likely longer to overcome-despite the aggressive selloff across markets through late May. Agri prices are expected to remain elevated through 2023 and likely beyond. Though, stymied investor risk appetite amid discussions of a humanitarian export corridor for Ukrainian food exports, downside global growth risks and hand to mouth consumer buying, has driven a downward revision in our price forecasts through 2022.

This podcast was recorded on June 3 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4110968-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan’s Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil join Alex Roever to discuss trading futures in a low liquidity environment.

This podcast was recorded on June 1, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss the outlook for platinum and palladium prices after a volatile start to the year.  Prices of both metals surged into early March on intensifying concerns around Russian supply. Yet this risk premium has sharply eroded in the last two months as fundamental concerns quickly shifted from lost supply to disintegrating demand as disruptions have once again snarled automotive supply chains.  While trimming near-term forecasts to account for the diminished S&D fundamentals, a stabilizing rebound in light vehicle production as well as a recovery in industrial activity in China should support prices for both metals in the coming quarters. Though, over the medium-term, PGM prices look set to diverge with platinum prices likely to see further gains on tightening fundamentals while palladium faces a number of stiff structural headwinds.

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4104253-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent bear market bounce in EM local markets and how to assess moves on EM local bonds.

This podcast was recorded on May 26 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4105618-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.