At Any Rate

Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes

Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the recent US moderation and upcoming tariff announcements, with implications for US rates and the dollar. 

 

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922731-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920384-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Copper — From tariffs to tightness

Speaker: 

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

 

Limited copper supply growth and resilient global demand sets up a tighter forecasted refined copper market in 2H25 and 2026 and keeps us medium-term bullish on prices. While current slack in China and the potential for greater tariff headline volatility over the next month risks a near-term pullback in copper, we ultimately believe global demand will begin to stress copper balances later this year. Moreover, likely excess inventory builds in the US in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper than expected, driving more significant tightening to copper balances in China and Asia into the summer, setting the stage for our forecasted bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt.

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909053-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

US Rates - Monthly inflation outlook: Looking for value amid global inflation cross-currents

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets following broad-based breakeven narrowing over the past month. Despite upside surprises in January CPI reports, front-end breakevens have underperformed while the forward inflation curve has steepened across US, Euro area, and UK markets.

 

Speakers:

Phoebe White   Head of US Inflation Strategy           

Francis Diamond   Head of European Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Revolving market regimes

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

 

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui,  Emerging Markets Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

European Rates: Analysing Eurex futures roll

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss the drivers of Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Mar25/Jun25 Eurex bond futures rollover

 

This podcast was recorded on 25 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Argentina: Is this time different?

A fixed income cross-asset review as structural shifts gain critical mass.

 

Speakers:
Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy | Moderator
Gisela Brant, LatAm Local Markets Strategy
Gorka Lalaguna, EM Sovereign Credit Strategy
Alejandra Andrade, LatAm Corporate Credit Strategy

 

This was recorded on February 24, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4891328-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Economics: German elections - “The world isn’t waiting” but the euro will have to

Meera Chandan and Greg Fuzesi discuss the outcome of the German elections, implications for a fiscal response and take-aways for currency markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4918826-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4913224-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on the Treasury and TIPS market in the context of the January FOMC meeting minutes, debt management strategy commentary from Treasury Secretary Bessent, ongoing tariff headlines and rising survey-based inflation expectations.

 

Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Phoebe White,  Head of US Inflation Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on February 21, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915577-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916770-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916846-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4917624-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar

Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook amid cross-currents  of wavering tariff risk premium in the USD, European peace optimism and sharp moves in the JPY.

 

Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Commodities: The Trump doctrine: 2025 a pivotal year for Iran with likely minimal impact on production

The original JCPOA agreement is set to expire on October 18, 2025, raising the question of whether it makes sense to restore the JCPOA as it was envisioned in 2015 or to draft a new nuclear agreement, with both the US and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate. Economic transformation in the Gulf requires stability and GCC countries have engaged with Iran, reducing support for aggressive US policies. Rebounding US inflation may also influence policy priorities. We forecast Iranian crude production to remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906782-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.