At Any Rate

Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss their latest fundamental and price assessment for agricultural markets through 2022-23. Grain prices are consolidating around costs of production after one of the largest ever positioning washouts on record through June-certainly more abrupt, increasing risks of a late summer recovery. With one go the warmest Northern Hemisphere summers on record threatening production potential across Western Europe, and Ukrainian agricultural exports flowing well below capacity indefinitely, agricultural markets warrant close attention. Price forecasts through 3Q22 have been marked-to-market, prompting lower revisions for grains, palm, sugar and cotton markets, amid a tighter fundamental environment. The forecast profile continues to embed a fundamentally driven recovery through end 3Q22 into 4Q22 - reflecting the physical tightness in exploitable supplies, as material supply side downgrades are realized, and consumer demand emerges after a hiatus. Investor flows post-holiday season will also be important to monitor.

This podcast was recorded on 12 August 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Ben Shatil and Patrick Locke discuss the dollar outlook following this week’s CPI inflation print.

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 August 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the channels through which China’s slower growth can impact the different parts of EM fixed income: EM FX, rates and credit markets.

This podcast was recorded on August 4, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4169250-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss take-aways from the July FOMC meeting, the outlook for policy rates, impact on the treasury curve, and outlook for Treasury’s August refunding.

 

Speakers

Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy

Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research

Jay Barry, US Fixed Income Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159127-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159401-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160963-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Ben Shatil discuss the dollar and yen outlook following this week’s Fed meeting.

 

This podcast was recorded on 29 July 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4162663-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Natasha Kaneva and Ted Hall discuss the proposed Inflation Reduction Act and the recent sell-off in the commodities market. On Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin unveiled the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022—a $739 billion revenue-and-spending deal aimed at lowering carbon emissions and curbing healthcare costs. If approved, this would be the biggest federal investment in clean energy ever made in the US. And, despite financial markets trying to price in a recession, crude oil prices have moved in the direction of our base case forecast. Crucially, neither our oil demand estimates nor our price forecasts established in mid-March envisioned a recession. While we do not believe the risk of recession is priced in the oil price yet, that risk is growing.

 

This podcast was recorded on Friday 29th July 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4158963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of complacency emerging in EM markets, as the relief rally leaves negative real rates looking low compared to the risks ahead.

This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160842-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara

This podcast was recorded on Jul 22, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145611-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4147191-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4150862-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145839-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4153834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the key issues to focus on for the euro, China and the upcoming Fed meeting.

This podcast was recorded on July 22, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4154377-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of stress in EM fixed income markets and whether these point to a bottom for EM risk assets or are part of an ongoing period of macro headwinds.

This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4152980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.