At Any Rate

US Rates: What’s pushing funding spreads?

Ongoing geopolitical risk and the onset of sanctions have pushed Libor and other funding metrics to stressed levels.  Strategists Alex Roever and Teresa Ho provide a closer look on the messaging coming from these metrics and markets.

This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4031059-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4031119-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Rates: The ECB and the nasty math of energy prices

European Rates Strategists Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the implications of the recent ECB meeting. The more hawkish ECB delivery was likely prompted by increased inflation concerns and elevated measures of inflation expectations, following the recent spike in energy prices. We discuss ECB tapering in the context of the risks around the growth uncertainty. The policy decision weakens the ECB safety net as asset purchased are tapered to end in Q3, amidst ongoing macro/geopolitical uncertainty and higher supply going forward. We also briefly discuss implications for the upcoming BoE meeting.

Speakers
Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4030680-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income: EM stagflation vulnerabilities

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the risks for EM markets of a more stagflationary global environment, resulting from the Russia/Ukraine war.

This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4029173-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: Mounting inflationary pressure in the US

TIPS Strategist Phoebe White and US Economist Peter McCrory discuss the outlook for US inflation.  Given a shift toward more inertial categories of inflation and the escalating conflict in Ukraine, we now expect higher inflation throughout the remainder of this year and into next.  For now, we still look for the Fed to hike 25bp per meeting, beginning next week. We discuss how US inflation markets have reacted to the surge commodities prices. Inflation risk premium has risen along the curve, and market-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations have risen to 7-year highs.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4022518-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4024037-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: Considering spillover from geopolitics to FX

We discuss the impact of recent geopolitical developments on FX markets. The euro bloc is the most vulnerable, while the dollar and commodity currencies are more insulated. We are recommending shorts in EUR, GBP and SEK vs. longs in USD, CHF and G10 petro FX. Deterioration in risk sentiment would usually be more JPY-supportive, but higher energy prices are an offset.

We also discuss the main take-aways from our FX models. The growth and market regimes have turned outright defensive, and risks to the dollar are skewed asymmetrically stronger. Models were already short EUR to begin with, but magnitude of shorts have increased on growth revisions.

Speakers

Paul Meggyesi, Global FX Strategy

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

 

This was recorded on March 7, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: One week into the Russian invasion - the state of commodities markets

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Gregory Shearer, and Tracey Allen to discuss the current state of commodities markets after an exceptionally volatile week given the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict. The team explores the disruption in export volumes, alternative supplies, and demand rationing, as well as potential upside price scenarios if Russian exports are materially disrupted in the coming weeks and months.

 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

 

This podcast was recorded on March 4, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

EM Fixed Income: The fog of war

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the impact of the major escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict for Emerging Market assets.

This podcast was recorded on February 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014479-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Rates: BoE QT: Taking the plunge on asset sales

J.P. Morgan research analysts (Francis Diamond and Allan Monks) discuss their thoughts on BoE QT and in particular potential gilt asset sales. They discuss the policy drivers and possible size of QT sales as well as thoughts around implications for UK rate markets

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4013981-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: The world is short commodities. China is not. Introducing the Global Commodities Inventory Monitor.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to introduce and discuss our commodities inventory monitor. Global commodity inventories have contracted sharply over the past six months. While tradeable commodity stocks are critically low, it is important to acknowledge the abundance of available inventories in leading commodity consumer and importer China, to draw upon as required, which influences global import demand.  

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4008477-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: EM local yield curves in a flattening world

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the outlook for EM local yield curves in the face of relentless flattening pressures and a withdrawal of global monetary accommodation. In particular, some yield curves are very flat and inverted even at the short ends, raising questions of whether this is warranted.

This podcast was recorded on February 17, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4007102-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.