Analysts from J.P. Morgan Global Research take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.
Episodes
Friday Jan 24, 2025
Friday Jan 24, 2025
Since the start of the year, Brent oil has been trading $4-7 above fair value, reflecting risks of reduced Russian and Iranian oil exports. Some risk premium is justified given the substantial figures involved: nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions. Russia has previously defied expectations of supply disruptions, and it is reasonable to assume that its export flows will remain resilient. However, application of sanctions on Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate. The current $4 premium for potential disruption in Iranian oil flows might be overestimated. The market anticipates up to 1.3 mbd drop in Iranian oil exports, but this week’s replacement of Iran hawk with Iran dove as Pentagon’s next policy chief for the Middle East could signal a shift in the policy.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885062-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 24, 2025
Friday Jan 24, 2025
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers European cross currency basis and their latest thoughts on the cross currency basis market.
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4889166-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Thursday Jan 23, 2025
Thursday Jan 23, 2025
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892489-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Friday Jan 17, 2025
The weather forecasts for early 2025 in both the US and Europe have turned colder, leading to increased natural gas demand and stress on projected end of season storage levels. While current conditions suggest a bullish outlook, we caution that there is still plenty of winter and time left in the year, creating significant uncertainty regarding price formation over the balance of 2025 in both markets.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4888451-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4884963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Arindam Sandilya , Junya Tanase, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook heading into the US Presidential inauguration next week.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 17, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4887086-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro research at J.P. Morgan, discusses the outlook for government bond issuance in 2025 with strategists Jay Barry and Aditya Chordia. The team discusses how ongoing central bank QT amplifies issuance trends, and wide budget deficits suggest term premium should remain elevated in the US and UK, while these trends should be less impactful for Euro-area and Japanese yields.
Speakers:
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4887257-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Friday Jan 17, 2025
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 10, 2025
Friday Jan 10, 2025
This week our Global FX Strategists discuss how much upside the dollar still has given US exceptionalism and tariff risks. They also touch on implications from the UK’s fiscal outlook for GBP, as well as the read-through from political developments in Canada to CAD.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4881532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 10, 2025
Friday Jan 10, 2025
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the surprisingly benign year-end for the repo marketsand what that might mean for the timing of QT’s end.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy
PJ Vohra, U.S. Short-Term Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879319-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 10, 2025
Friday Jan 10, 2025
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Between December 23 and January 8, oil prices rose over 6%, with Brent hitting $77/bbl and WTI nearly $75/bbl, a three-month high. The gap between realized and forecasted prices, which widened to nearly $10 last year, has now closed, aligning Brent with our $75 fair value for January. This price action is likely driven by concerns over supply disruptions from tightening sanctions, low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in the US and Europe, improved sentiment on China’s stimulus, cleaner positioning, and CTA short-covering flows. We expect prices to remain stable for most of the year, dipping below $70 in the final quarter, averaging $73 for the year.
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879370-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.