At Any Rate

After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86/bbl. We maintain our view that August saw the largest deficit of the year and that inventory draws will transition to a slight build during the final four months of the year. Accordingly, crude backwardation should start to narrow and physical crude differentials for alternative Atlantic Basin grades should start to ease. Our balances assume healthy but slower demand growth in 4Q23 as we expect normal seasonal patterns in demand to be maintained this year. Crucially, demand restraint from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and some EM countries. Accordingly, we believe that global oil inventories have built in September.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 05 October 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the CTD shift in Treasury futures and its implications.

 

Speakers

Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director, co-head of US Rates Strategy

Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520589-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week we discuss the Dollar rally having stepped up a gear. Compare and contrast Q4-23 with Q4-22. Bottoms up USD drivers and positioning. European FX highest convictions.

Speakers

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521884-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we discuss current risks plaguing the European and US natural gas markets, including the potential for power generation to provide some upside risk to our current 2024 price forecast for US natural gas and Norwegian outages that have helped the European natural gas market avoid storage congestion. However, ultimately we believe that weather firmly in the driver seat in dictating price formation for 2024.

 

Speakers
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Strategy

Otar Dgebuadze, Global Energy Strategy  

 

This podcast was recorded on 29 Sept 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4518638-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522775-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521773-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta, and James Nelligan discuss their recently published Scandi Monthly outlook. They explain our latest views on the diverging economic outlook in Scandinavia and its impact on rates and FX markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520080-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their recently published Global government bond activity chart pack outlining our latest views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds.

 

This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies after a heavy week of DM central bank meetings.

 

Speakers:  Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan & Patrick Locke

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515282-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

After reaching our target of $90 in September, further price gains may be limited as we believe most bullish cues—both macro and micro—for the market have been exhausted for now. Our end-year target remains $86/bbl, while acknowledging that the path to this target can take different shapes. Relative to July, macro sentiment in September might be close to an inflection as the focus shifts to higher-for-longer US rates and sticky inflation. With pump prices surging and a seasonal travel peak behind us, oil demand risks are shifting to the downside and the support of China’s pent-up demand recovery is likely behind us. Russian crude oil exports rebounded by more than twice than expected in September and fuel exports booked prior to the ban continue to flow while China’s oil product exports are also rising. Oil positioning is no longer short. Our view remains that sharp inventory draws in 3Q23 will transition into a slight build during the final four months of the year. Preliminary stock observations suggest a build in global oil inventories in the first week of September.  

Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.