At Any Rate

At Any Rate: Known unknowns

Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcomes of the November FOMC meeting and Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement and the impact on the US rates market.  The Fed delivered a tapering announcement, as expected, and is likely to complete its asset purchases by mid-2022 much quicker than the 2013-2014 timeline. Moreover, the Fed changed its description on the outlook for inflation, and the onus is on labor supply is critical to thinking about the outlook for inflation and policy rates in 2022.  Front-end yields declined this week and priced a more dovish path for Fed policy in 2022, but driven more by global dynamics than the FOMC  Finally, the Fed’s quick taper has been accompanied by large cuts to Treasury auctions sizes, with more likely to come in 2022. This should allow the T-bill share of debt to stabilize.

This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910586-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910596-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3911077-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

At Any Rate: How soon is now

In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the outcome of the September FOMC meeting and the attendant impact on the rates markets. They delve how the outcome was more hawkish than expected, as the Fed is likely to complete its asset purchases earlier than expected They discuss the impact on the yield curve and the explore the path for the curve going forward.  They also discuss the implications of the Fed increasing the counterparty limit on the Overnight RRP facility, and review latest developments on the debt ceiling debate.

 

This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868711-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

At Any Rate: More than meets the eye

In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the developments in rates markets as summer transitions to fall.  They delve into what the current level of Treasury yields imply for the growth outlook over the next year, examine investor positioning, and discuss the latest developments on debt ceiling negotiations.

 

This podcast was recorded on September 13, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859927-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Any Future for Bonds in 60/40?

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jan Loeys, Joshua Younger, and Colin Paiva discuss the outlook for fixed income returns over the coming decades and the role of bonds in asset allocation.

 

This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3797098-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Any future for bonds in 60/40?, August 3, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

U.S. Fixed Income: The outlook for rates in 2H21

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Jay Barry, Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Josh Younger discuss the outlook for rates and related sectors in the second half of 2021.

 

This podcast was recorded on June 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3785889-0 for more information; please visitwww.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “The outlook for US rates in 2H21, June 29, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

U.S. Fixed Income: Demographic Duration Demand in the Long End

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger, Jay Barry, Eric Beinstein, and Phoebe White discuss recent trends in demand at the long end of the curve for Treasuries, swaps and corporate bonds.

 

This podcast was recorded on April 21, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3711431-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Demographic duration demand in the long end, April 21, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Still Waiting on SLR: The Impact on Banks, Spreads, and Rates

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Kabir Caprihan, Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, Josh Younger, and Teresa Ho  discuss the upcoming expiration of the carve-out of reserves and Treasuries from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, and the implications for rates and credit markets under various scenarios.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 12 and 15, 2021.  A portion of this episode is excerpted from a conference call for institutional clients of J.P. Morgan held on March 12, 2021; clients can access a replay of the full call at www.jpmm.com/research/content/CFP-PC-5303-0.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3675636-0 more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Podcast: Still Waiting on SLR: March 12, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

U.S. Fixed Income: Overstimulated? The Biden Stimulus and Bond Markets

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, and Teresa Ho discuss the new stimulus bill in Congress and its implication for the economy, bond markets, and the US money markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3671430-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Overstimulated?  The Biden stimulus and bond markets, March 8, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

U.S. Fixed Income: How Would Larger Fiscal Stimulus Impact Treasuries and TIPS?

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss how larger projected fiscal stimulus is likely to impact the outlook for Treasury yields, TIPS breakevens, and Treasury issuance trends.

 

This podcast was recorded on February 22, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports atwww.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3654261-0  and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3650752-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “How would larger fiscal stimulus impact Treasuries and TIPS?, February 22, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

U.S. Fixed Income: As Yields Rise, Are We Headed for a Convexity Event?

In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Matt Jozoff, Josh Younger and Nick Maciunas discuss the risk that rising rates trigger a mortgage convexity event which could accelerate a sell-off on bonds.

 

This podcast was recorded on February 12, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3647898-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “As yields rise, are we headed for a convexity event?, February 12, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.