At Any Rate

EM Fixed Income: The curious case of sovereign credit underperformance versus local markets

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the curious case of Emerging Market credit underperformance versus local markets. This has occurred despite market focus on higher US rates which is typically worse for local markets. They discuss whether this is just early 2022 market noise or whether there is more signal.

This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3991747-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Russia’s influence on the commodities complex

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Gregory Shearer, and Tracey Allen to discuss Russia's influence on the commodities complex. With Russia/Ukraine tensions on the rise, an escalation and/or potential disruption in exports is materially bullish commodities. Natural gas, oil, aluminum, PGMs, wheat and corn look to be the most exposed.

This podcast was recorded on 28 January 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3978982-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Don’t get carried away in EM FX

The Fed remains the key driver for EM markets in early 2022 but EM currencies have underreacted to US rates repricing, with the higher carry now available on EM FX cited as a potential buffer. We discuss whether EM FX carry is a strong enough factor to cushion the asset class from the historical experience of EM currency weakness around the start of Fed hiking cycles.

This podcast was recorded on January 27, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3984672-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: What we learned from the January FOMC meeting

There were no big surprises at the January FOMC meeting, but Powell’s remarks after the meeting were arguably the most hawkish he’s made as Fed Chair.  J.P. Morgan Economist Mike Feroli and US Rates Strategy team breakdown the meeting and highlight the expected policy moves to come.

This podcast was recorded on January 27, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3983276-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3983345-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: Which way is up for the Fed?

Expectations that the Fed will soon begin to normalize monetary policy have left bond market participants with many questions.   J.P. Morgan’s Alex Roever explores some of these with economist Michael Feroli, and strategists Teresa Ho (money markets), Jay Barry (treasuries) and Nick Maciunas (agency MBS).  

 

This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3966322-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3971185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Securitized Products: Charging for Chalets – FHFA Boosts LLPAs

John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas and Kaustub Samant from the Securitized Products team to discuss the FHFA recent changes to loan level pricing for jumbo and second home loans deliverable to the GSEs. We touch on the implications for mortgage rates, prepayments, home prices, affordable lending and private-label originations.

This podcast was recorded on January 12, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3963683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: Tales of the taper

Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the impact on the US rates market.  The Fed made major changes to its policy statement, and the latest SEP indicate an early policy liftoff and a faster pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023.  This largely aligns with our forecast that the Fed will liftoff in June and then tighten at a quarterly pace thereafter.  In the aftermath of this meeting, front-end Treasury yields declined and the curve broadly steepened.  We discuss the impact of valuations, positioning, and liquidity on the rates markets in the aftermath of the Fed meeting

This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952581-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Securitized Products: Home Price, Commercial Real Estate and Mortgage Rate 2022 Outlook

John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas, Kaustub Samant and Chong Sin from the Securitized Products team to discuss US home prices, looking at both single-family and multi-family buy / rent options. We take into consideration the lack of housing supply, affordability and mortgage rates. We also discuss potential property price increases in commercial real estate.

This podcast was recorded on December 8, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates: Outlook for Corporate Bonds in 2022

Alex Roever is joined by Eric Beinstein and Nelson Jantzen to discuss the outlook for High Grade and High Yield corporate credit markets in 2022.  Rising UST yields, improving credit fundamentals, and less net supply should lead to modestly tighter spreads.  We also see the environment sustaining tight spreads in leveraged credit, especially for floating-rate loans.

This podcast was recorded on December 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930907-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3928409-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

At Any Rate: Thoughts on US & European Interest Rates for 2022

Alex Roever is joined by Srini Ramaswamy, Fabio Bassi, and Jay Barry to discuss the outlook for US and developed market interest rates in 2022.  They discuss the relative differences in central bank reaction functions and the resulting impact on yields.  Notably, the ECB is set to further expand its balance sheet expansion in 2022, but we forecast 10-year bund yields rising to -15bp and the curve steepening by 2Q22.  The BoE is likely to raise rates next month and twice in 2022, pushing 10-year gilt yields to 1.15% by mid-year.  We envision above-trend growth and a Fed on the move pushing 10-year yields to 2% by mid-2022. Fed tapering and bank leverage constraints will likely lead to slower deposit growth and demand for Treasuries in 2022.  We envision volatility rising in 2022, supported by an active Fed and rising longer-term rates. 

This podcast was recorded on November 30, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931469-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.