At Any Rate

US Rates - So long EFFR, welcome TGCR

US Rates Strategists Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil reflect on shifts to SOFR and EFFR this month as well as discuss the implications of TGCR as an alternative benchmark.

 

Speakers
Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head, U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083215-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082188-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090225-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Systematic signals, payrolls/ shutdown, risks to EUR/USD, AI-FX links

Meera Chandan, Antonin Delair and Patrick Locke discuss the lower conviction and data dependent outlook for the dollar, as well as implications from systematic signals, the US government shutdown and payrolls. Risks around the EUR/USD view as well as AI-FX linkages are discussed.

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5089100-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity

A larger than initially expected supply disruption from the world’s second largest copper mine, Freeport’s Grasberg in Indonesia, will significantly tighten the copper market in the coming quarters and has flipped our forecasted S&D balance to deficits for this year and in 2026.  Much tighter fundamentals and the draw on limited ex-US inventory flips us bullish on copper, seeing prices pushing towards $11,250/mt in the coming quarters.

 

Speaker:

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research

 

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5089117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Global Rates: Scandi Central Banks and noisy UK politics

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this month and implications for Scandinavian rate markets as well as recent noise around UK politics.

 

This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at 

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5087057-0 

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Frontier Markets Focus

Ayomide Mejabi, Nicolaie Alexandru, Katherine Marney and Gbolahan Taiwo discuss the mood at the 2025 Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference in London focusing on key themes and highlighting specific frontier countries.

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.

For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: At Any Rate: Party like a semiquincentenarian

With the Fed cutting cycle commencing this week, consensus expectations of a straightforward series of quarter-point rate cuts conceals a broad spectrum of potential outcomes. Commodities have rallied 15% on average over previous benign cutting cycles yet have faced much stiffer headwinds over past recessionary-tinged rate-cutting cycles. That being said, the risk of renewed inflation is also high, especially in the US, which will celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026. Reflation, accompanied by stronger underlying growth momentum, has produced the strongest and most broad-based positive environment for commodities, averaging +1.6% monthly returns. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss how commodities have performed over previous Fed cutting cycles and what to expect this time around.

 

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Take-aways from FOMC and other DM central banks

Following DM central bank Superweek, we discuss currency take-aways from the Fed, BoC, Norges Bank and BoE and preview FX implications from the SNB and Riksbank next week.

 

Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085230-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Digging into a week of DM central bank decisions

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcomes of this week's FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, and the impact on DM rates markets.

 

Speakers: 

Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy

Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5084041-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085131-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Monthly Inflation Outlook

US Rates strategist Phoebe White and European Rates strategist Frida Infante discuss the August inflation data and their outlook for inflation markets going forward. While they see limited catalysts to push Euro area breakevens out of recent ranges, the backdrop remains supportive for US breakevens.

 

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy

Frida Infante, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on September 18, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5077727-0 for more information; please visit  www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

EM Fixed Income: (EM) Credit where credit’s due

Jonny Goulden, Ben Ramsey, YM Hong and Ayomide Mejabi discuss the implications of the Fed cut for EM, as well as the mood at the Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference in London.

This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.