At Any Rate

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting beginning in June. Accordingly, we revise higher our Treasury yield forecasts for the balance of the year.

 

Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy 
Michael Feroli,  Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653388-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653424-0 and here; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652552-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies amidst a heavy central bank event calendar next week.

 

Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650281-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained refinery runs due to drone attacks and maintenance that runs from April through June lower processing rates. After June, Russia would likely have to cut exports to accommodate lower crude production setting the stage for a contentious June OPEC+ meeting.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4649503-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden

Saad Siddiqui

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward

 

Speakers:

Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4643590-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting.

This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648213-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

 

Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX.  The sharp rally demonstrates the immense power of flow in gold and previews why we remain structurally bullish the metal over the next year. Yet, for us to ultimately reach our upside price targets we need to unlock more than just the systematic momentum inflows we likely saw this week. This will require continued moderation in inflation and US jobs data in the coming months to solidify Fed cut expectations and ultimately trigger the next leg of inflows from discretionary funds and ETF holders necessary to push prices up towards our $2,300/oz ultimate target.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4644713-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class.

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy 
Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration 
Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy & Implementation 
Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610201-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully or partially electric vehicles represent now 7% of the global fleet, likely shaving almost 500 kbd off global gasoline demand between 2019 and 2023, with 400 kbd of those from the US and China. Increasing pressure from electrification and efficiency gains will likely lead to a first on record outside of recession contraction in global gasoline demand in 2025 and a cumulative loss of 0.9 mbd by 2030.

 

Speakers:  

 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4633431-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers: 

 

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit

 

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets, following on from J.P. Morgan’s 2024 High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4641255-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4631154-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4615611-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571639-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GQ71W05A for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.