At Any Rate

Rates strategists Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, and Phoebe White discuss recent developments in funding markets and how that may influence the path for QT. They also preview the August refunding and discuss next week’s FOMC meeting.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy

Teresa Ho, Head, US Short Duration Strategy 

Phoebe White, Head, US Inflation Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4754513-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4753546-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747894-0 GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research and Strategy and Amy Sze who heads ABS Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

 

Speakers:

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research

Amy Sze, Head of ABS Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 23rd, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4744651-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751803-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0, for more information please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & Arindam Sandilya survey current investor sentiment around the FX asset class, and discuss implications of recent shifts in the US political landscape for the broad dollar.

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750793-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750927-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751397-0

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

The events of the past few weeks, President Biden’s poor debate performance, followed by Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, have led to a clear shift in the tone of the elections and increased the probability for a sizable Red Wave. Given the range of scenarios that could play out, gold stands out as a winner. The first edition of our Commodities 2024 US Elections Watch focused on implications for the commodities under a split Congress outcome, now we assess what GOP control of all Washington levers of power could mean for the sector.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4746885-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748583-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss a new class of options-based trades that are designed to trade the volatility of principal components of the US Rates markets.

Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4742403-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist 
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for yen flows with focus on GPIF, the dollar’s reaction to CPI & payrolls, and the implications of the latest data for EUR, GBP and Scandi FX.

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

Our balances suggest a ~1.0 mbd deficit in oil liquids in 3Q, comprised of a large 1.6 mbd surplus in products, but a massive 2.4 mbd draw in crude. This dichotomy represents a historic norm in terms of direction, but is an anomaly in terms of scale. Supply and demand so far have performed largely in line with our expectations, but if there is a weak spot in our balances, it would likely be on the refining side. Throughout this year we have been consistently downgrading our projections for growth in global processing rates for 2024, and now see only 1 mbd growth this year vs 1.8 mbd originally. We maintain our long-held view that Brent oil will reach $90 by September, average $84 in the third quarter and $83 for the year, before dropping into mid-$60s in 4Q25.

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4740131-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.