At Any Rate

Global FX: FX vol could be the next casualty of a weak dollar

Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook ahead of next week’s central bank meetings.

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318937-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Europe and Russia prepared to navigate upcoming products embargo

Natasha Kaneva is joined by John Royall, Head of the US Integrated Oils & Refining equity research team to discuss the outlook for refined oil products like diesel ahead of the February 5 European embargo on imports of Russian oil products. Brent oil price has gained 13% from the bottom reached on January 4 to trade at $88/bbl, $5 above our model-derived fair value for January. While optimistic demand expectations from China’s reopening have helped oil regain December losses, we believe soaring middle distillate prices and cracks are mostly behind crude’s bullish price action. We expect volatility in distillate cracks and prices in 1Q23 around embargo implementation but see market imbalances clearing by 2Q23 and risk premium dissipating as Europe and Russia had a year to prepare. 

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

John Royall, Head of U.S. Integrated Oils & Refining equity research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318088-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income: Has positioning run too far?

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss positioning in EM fixed income assets and whether this could put the brakes on performance in the near term.

This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: No let-up in the dollar’s cyclical headwinds

Arindam Sandilya, Tohru Sasaki and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook after this week’ BOJ meeting.

This podcast was recorded on 20 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4313340-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: China’s reopening supports $90 Brent as weather hurts global gas prices

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Parsley Ong and Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss the implications of an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy and recent revisions to our global natural gas outlook. While investors so far have chosen to play China’s reopening through metals, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most. We upgrade China oil demand but maintain our Brent price forecast for the year at $90/bbl and see prices  averaging $85 in 1Q, scaling up to $89 in 2Q and exiting the year at $94. Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023. Meanwhile, a bullish narrative for global natural gas markets is hard to maintain when winter weather struggles to appear – particularly when supply is plentiful.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy and Chemicals Equities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 Jan 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4311885-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income: Has a China reopening been priced?

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss whether a China reopening has been over- or under-priced by EM fixed income assets.

This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4312195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: Discussing new FX targets

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss changes to the EUR, CNY & JPY outlooks.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 13 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4307604-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: A serendipitously warm winter

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Gregory Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss the exceptionally strong wintertime heat being observed across the Northern Hemisphere and its implication on the broader commodities complex. January forecasts of the Population Weighted Heating Degree Days index (PWHDD) for the Northern Hemisphere currently sit more than three standard deviations warmer than the 10-year mean, leading to swings in prices and pressures on fundamentals. At the same time, the team discusses the impact on commodities demand from an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 13 Jan 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX: An un-EASI kick-off to the New Year

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and James Nelligan discuss the cross-currents affecting the dollar and highlight why cyclical G10 currencies in the euro bloc are underperforming.

 

This podcast was recorded on Friday 06 January 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4301207-0 ,   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: New year’s resolutions

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss what’s new for EM fixed income markets as we start the new year.

This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4299965-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.