At Any Rate

Global FX and US rates - The uncomfortable calm before the storm

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX US and rates markets heading into key US event risk.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351568-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Japan Markets: The BoJ cannot catch up with RoW: JPY is back to the weakest currency again

Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Ikue Saito.

This podcast was recorded on Feb 27, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4333234-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4332014-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4323617-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4303279-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343744-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343845-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Taking stock of China’s reopening – a slow start

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss commodities demand in China and how hopes for a strong China reopening have given way to concerns about falling cargo shipments, building commodity inventories and lackluster sales of homes and cars. While China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for all commodities higher, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most this year. Global LNG, metals and several ags markets are set to benefit later in the year and enjoy a full recovery in 2024.

 

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340793-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

Global FX—Wake me up when March ends

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX ahead of a possibly pivotal month.  

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4344557-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4329269-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Four seasons in one day

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest fundamental and market developments in EM fixed income.

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4343228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Gold to break $2,000 this year

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss J.P. Morgan’s bullish forecast update for gold and silver prices and recent activity in the market including unprecedented levels of central bank purchases. While we have held a constructive view on gold and silver since last September, rebounds in the prices of both metals since late last year have outpaced our expectations as the US dollar weakened more than expected.  The recent post-payrolls jump higher in the US dollar  triggered some technical breaks in gold and silver taking some built up froth out of gold prices in particular.  However, we do not think its a game changer with both metals appearing poised to continue pushing higher in the coming quarters. Marking our price forecasts to market and embedding the latest JPM base case for falling US real yields and a largely neutral US dollar, we have upgraded our 2023 gold and silver price forecasts by around 10% and now see gold prices rising to average $2,045/oz in 4Q23 with silver increasing to an average of $26.6/oz.

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: A lot to process

FX strategists Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.

This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332305-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Bonanza week ends (net) supportive for EM

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest macro trends and idiosyncratic developments driving EM fixed income assets.

Speakers

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 3 February 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325612-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX & EM: When Fed and growth collide

J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM

 

This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325568-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0.pdf, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4324128-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Americans drive more on less

The US Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that in the first eleven months of 2022, American drivers used 10 kbd less gasoline than in the corresponding period the year before and 540 kbd less fuel than in 2019—a surprisingly weak outcome given that Americans collectively traveled more last year than in 2021 and drove a similar amount of miles as in 2019. We see a modest increase in US gasoline demand in 2023 and a further improvement in 2024, but given the structural shifts in the US gasoline market, peak gasoline demand now appears to have been 9.85 mbd, set in August 2019. A structural decline in US gasoline consumption will reverberate globally given US gasoline accounts for 9% of global oil demand. The implications will be both on refining—via a mismatch in supplies of products and price spikes—and the quality of crude as focus of refiners shifts from fuels to chemicals and from crude to natural gas liquids as a feedstock.  

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321829-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.