At Any Rate

Global Rates 2H23 Outlook: The last leg of the tightening journey

2H23 will deliver a continuation of the tightening journey for most of DM central banks, at least over the summer, although differentiation across jurisdictions will emerge as we approach the end of the cycle.

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4445501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Emerging Markets Special Topic: The Evolving EM Sovereign Debt Restructuring Landscape

There has been much discussion in the last year over the inability of the existing sovereign debt restructuring architecture to deal with a new wave of sovereign restructurings in a world where China is now the largest bilateral creditor. The end of more than a decade of easy money and global shocks have lead several countries into default and bond markets have priced out market access for a host of others. This has led to a problem of increasing needs to restructure EM sovereign debt, but a larger cast of creditors and no clear restructuring rule-book are causing delays, which have economic and societal costs.  The G20’s Common Framework (CF) aimed to get creditors together, but has stalled for many countries. With a hamstrung effort at new rules, and clear risks of more sovereign stress to come, there are many proposals for ways to improve or fully revamp the debt restructuring architecture. In this podcast, we take a look at the main issues that are troubling the current sovereign restructuring landscape, and review some of the proposed solutions.

 

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist 
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420237-0

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Oil Markets: The Labors of Sisyphus

Speakers:  
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy 

 

In our 2023 Outlook last November, we forecasted that the oil market would be in surplus in 2023, with fair value for Brent averaging $84, but believed OPEC+ alliance would succeed in balancing the markets, thus scaling up our average price forecast for the year to $90. We no longer believe that to be the case and recently revised our average 2023 price from $90 to $81. We keep the rising price path unchanged, with inventories now starting to draw. Demand is running above expectations: absent a deep recession, global oil consumption will likely rise a solid 1.6 mbd in 2023. However, more than offsetting this, global oil supply is set to increase 2.2 mbd. It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do—incentivize supply. Crucially, non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand since the start of 2022, leaving the OPEC+ alliance having to cut production to balance the markets. Moreover, within the broader OPEC+ alliance, supply has been also rising outside the core members. Invariably, to make room for this supply growth, OPEC+ would need to cut more, were the alliance to adhere to the market management strategy.

 

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4431498-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX, EM Fixed Income & Global Commodities: Deciphering de-dollarization

Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva and Saad Siddiqui discuss trends in de-dollarization through the lens of FX, commodities and EM.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4430393-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396295-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4416313-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX : Marking USD higher on cooling global growth

This week our global FX strategists Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya & James Nelligan discuss outlooks and targets for the broad dollar, with a focus on USD/CNY, EUR/USD,USD/JPY and GBP/USD.

 

Speakers
Patrick Locke,  Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 09June2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4432524-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: US Energy Supply: US oil liquids production trends toward a second record-breaking year. Natural gas declines expected by July

US oil producers are off to a hot start of the year while gas producers are seeing movement as well. Total US liquids production (crude, condensate, and natural gas liquids) has reached an all-time high of 18.9 mbd in March. Our basin-level production forecasts for both oil and gas are changing shape – driven by upside in the Permian and the falling rig counts in the US. Even with rigs falling, the locations are key as gas declines are expected by July.  

 

Speakers:

Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities

Cole Wolf, Global Commodities

 

This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4435603-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX: The bullish dollar implications of the impending liquidity storm

Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications from the resolution of the latest debt ceiling episode through the lens of growth, risk premium and liquidity.

This podcast was recorded on 05 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428044-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: OPEC+ preview: another cut, complicated by record US production. Communication as important as action.

OPEC+ alliance is scheduled to meet in Vienna this weekend amid continued weakness in crude’s price structure—both flat price and time spreads—along with increased speculative short positioning. On paper, and assuming no recession, OPEC’s April cuts should suffice to tighten oil balances in the second half of the year. Yet, so far the promise of future bullish supply tightening has not convinced the market of rising oil prices. It will take evidence in the physical markets (e.g., backwardation) to confirm what our balances imply before oil price can stabilize and begin to grind higher. For that, the alliance—or at least some members—would likely need to cut more. Communication is just as important as action in terms of market reaction to any cut. To avoid fueling the prevailing market narrative, it is important to stress that demand growth continues to be robust. Rather, there is simply too much supply. 

 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

US Rates: What the debt ceiling resolution means for rates markets

In this podcast, we discuss how the passage of debt ceiling legislation and the attendant rise in the TGA is likely to impact US rates markets.

 

Speakers

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy

Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4424256-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: The summer price slide

The healthy cushion in storage created by a mild winter for the European natural gas market has now put it on a direct path for storage congestion, potentially as early as August. Strong LNG imports amid weaker-than-anticipated global LNG demand and lackluster industrial demand even at lower prices continue to contribute to these fears of storage congestion. In this episode, we discuss our view for the slide in European natural gas price – a potential soft price floor that can emerge with lower prices encouraging demand - particularly in the power sector. 

 

Speaker
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4413200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.