At Any Rate

EM Fixed Income: Summertime and the markets price easing

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss views on EM fixed income markets in the wake of recent data developments and heading into summer.

This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX: Breaking down the dollar break-down

Patrick Locke and James Nelligan from our Global FX Strategy team discuss implications from last week’s outsized USD sell-off.

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: US dollar is increasingly less important for oil prices. Implications for EM.

A structural shift is observed in the global energy markets, where big buyers of energy can now buy energy at a discount from sanctioned Russia, Iran and Venezuela, countries that combined represent close to 20% of the global oil exports. Crucially, this oil is now either sold in the local currencies of the buyers or in currencies of countries that are perceived as friendly. Consequently, US dollar now plays a more diminished role in determining oil prices. This de-dollarization trend in the commodity trade is a boon for some EM countries, which can now not only buy oil at a discount but pay for it with their own local currencies. This reduces the need for precautionary reserves of US dollars, US Treasuries and oil, which in turn might free capital to be deployed in growth-boosting domestic projects.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

Jahangir Aziz, EM Economics

This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459447-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: Staying defensive through macro noise

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies mid rising global bond yields.

Speakers:

Arindam Sandilya,  Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: How to get the mojo back

OPEC+ has been cutting oil output since November and after Monday’s announcement of additional cuts, the alliance will be holding back more than 4 mbd from the market. Yet the moves have so far failed to significantly tighten balances and lift oil prices, despite demand running above expectations. The group’s recent struggles may reveal a difficult underlying trend: non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand. To fully regain market power this year, we estimate OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7 mbd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions, with the full cut extended into 2024.

 

Speakers:  
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

This podcast was recorded 7/7/2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452093-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Fixed Income: Core CPI inflation to prove sticky near 3%

In this podcast, we discuss the outlook for core inflation over the next 6 months. Though core CPI inflation should moderate toward a 3.0%ar in the three months through September, we anticipate core inflation to stabilize at a 3.2%ar pace during the final three months of the year.

Speakers:

Phoebe White

Michael Hanson

Murat Tasci

This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.  

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4449035-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

 

Global Commodities: Oil 2030: Long Term Incentive Oil price

Speaker:  
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

 

We calculate the incentive price of oil needed to ensure that the world has enough investment—and oil—in 2030 and to close the supply-demand gap of over 4 mbd. Assuming 2% inflation, the low end of the range for the Brent incentive price sits at about $63 based on an IRR of 20%. An IRR of 25% moves the incentive price to $78/bbl. Under a 4% inflation scenario, the range is $80 to $100.

This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381901-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Mid-year debates around value in local markets and hard currency

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and how much value there is in EM local markets and hard currency bonds.

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446987-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Rays of Light in Frontier Markets - Takeaways from our annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference

Please join us for a discussion on the major takeaways from the second edition of our annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference, which was held in-person at our offices in London. The conference was attended by approximately 400 investors representing over 100 institutions, with 6 sovereigns and 27 corporate issuers participating.

 

Speakers:

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research

Ayomide Mejabi, Emerging Markets Strategy

Benjamin Ramsey, Emerging Market Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27-June-2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: USD bullish going into 2H

J.P. Morgan’s FX strategy team lays out the case for being defensive/ bullish USD going into 2H. Other themes discussed are: bearish views on CNY, GBP, JPY and Scandis; selective exposure to FX carry which remains elevated and opportunities in derivatives.

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4443645-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.