At Any Rate

US Rates – Deal or no deal?

US Rates strategists Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Ipek Ozil discuss their takeaways from this week's Fed meeting and tariff announcements. With a deterioration in labor market data still likely to drive Fed easing later this year, Treasury yields are expected to fall over coming months. Meanwhile, funding markets remain healthy, and stability has returned to swap spreads.

 

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy

Teresa Ho Gentile, Head of US Short Duration Strategy

Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981555-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980064-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4976471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss how the USD/Asia view is evolving after record volatility, as well as recent central bank meetings and the US-UK trade deal with the read-through to FX.

 

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss a variety of topics covering thoughts around the impact of de-dollarisation on Euro govie and swap markets, the May BoE meeting and UK rates as well as the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this week.

 

 

Speakers

Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy

Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist

Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 09 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981304-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980024-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980028-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Hypothetically, of course. Redirecting just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings to gold could drive prices to $6,000

Over the past five decades, foreign investors have been steadily accumulating US financial assets, which have reached nearly $57trn as of the end of 2024. Yet, there are signs that sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers appear to be rethinking the risk-reward parameters of holding US assets. Gold could further benefit from this shift. Given its limited supply growth, even relatively small reallocations into the metal can significantly impact prices. A potential shift of just 0.5% of foreign US assets to gold could yield 18% annual returns, taking gold prices toward $6,000 by early 2029.  While hypothetical, this scenario illustrates why we remain structurally bullish gold and think prices have further to run.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971492-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

TWD / Asian FX gains and equity implications

Arindam, Jemmy and Mixo discuss the outlook for Taiwanese and Asian equities more broadly in the wake of historic TWD FX appreciation

 

This podcast was recorded on May 8, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975042-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4974799-0and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates and Global FX: Ask again later

J.P. Morgan strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss latest developments in the Treasury and FX markets in the context of this week's employment data, trade negotiations, and Treasury's May refunding announcement.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy

Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4972435-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4973610-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Late-week shocker jolts FX

In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, our Global FX team addresses the large move in USD/TWD late in the week alongside implications for USD/CNY, Asia FX and global FX more broadly. We also recap recent FX-relevant macro data and central bank decisions, and look ahead to how FX might respond around central bank meetings next week.

 

Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Behind the curve

Speaker: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.

 

This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966066-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Lessons learned from post Liberation Day markets

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 01 May 2025.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Takeaways from IMF/WB Meeting

Sajjid Chinoy, Rajiv Batra and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro, equity and fixed income markets in the wake of the IMF / WB meetings in Washington DC last week

This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.