At Any Rate

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

In this episode, we discuss the December inflation data, the widening in the CPI/ PCE wedge, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions in the Red Sea on core goods inflation and commodity prices. We review the implications for US rates markets.

 

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy

Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 Jan 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: Spotlight on CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX

We discuss the outlook for the dollar and FX markets with focus on select Asia currencies: CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, FX Strategy and Japan Economics

This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4599991-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: History rhymes

In this episode, we discuss the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. The balance sheet discussion read dovishly, and portends an earlier end to QT than our baseline forecast. We discuss the implication for funding, rates, and MBS markets.

Speakers
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy
Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: It isn’t getting easier in the New Year

We take stock of FX markets at the start of the New Year, discussing the outlook for the broad dollar and other DM currencies.

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594494-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Only one turtle dove is needed for EM assets

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

Speakers:

Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: Central bank outcomes and implications for FX

In our last podcast for the year, we discuss the recent flurry of DM central bank meetings and implications for FX.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4585090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Observational equivalence—$74 in December, high $80s by May

Brent oil price at $74 is $8 too cheap vs our model-derived fair value of $82 for December. Given our optimistic view on demand next year, we see Brent oil trading in the low $80s by March and high $80s by May. We find current oil prices in the lower range of the trading band and see the recent sell-off as a potential buying opportunity—even with thinning liquidity ahead of the holiday period—given our divergence with consensus on fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. Given our outlook on demand, we argue that there is no need for further OPEC cuts were the alliance to accept lower oil prices in the mid-$70s to mid-$80s range. Instead, we believe, the alliance should unwind some of the voluntary reductions in order to gain operational flexibility when demand growth takes a step down in 2025 (and potentially 2026), when most of the post-COVID demand normalization is behind us and decarbonization policies begin to cut into demand for some products.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582283-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: A lot of 2024 optimism is in the price

This week, our FX Strategists, Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan take stock of feedback and price action following the release of our Year-Ahead Outlook last month. We also discuss recent developments surroundingJPY & CHF, as well as the tactical outlook for FX into a week full of event risk.

This podcast was recorded on 08 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Is the 2025 US natural gas bullish trade over?

Speaker: 

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research

 

Calendar 2024’s quickly weakening price as a result of not only significant changes milder in weather forecasts but also lofty daily production prints kicked off the weakness in 2025 price. The speed and magnitude of the price move lower was primarily driven by investor positioning in a very crowded long 2025 trade which has likely been cleaned up this week. Despite adjustments to our LNG timeline following recent announcements and an end-Oct 2025 storage trajectory nearing 4.2 Tcf, we do not see a reason to give up on the bullish cal 25 narrative. Focus on the Southeast balance shows that even just the start of the Plaquemines natural gas facility could result in acute tightness in the region as stronger withdrawals and weaker net injections will likely support price in 2025.

 

This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4579745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

2024 Interest Rate Derivatives Outlook

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their outlook for interest rate derivatives markets in 2024.

 

This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554285-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.