At Any Rate

US Rates: Death Cab for QT?

We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet int 2024, taking into account the Fed’s monetary policy framework, the expected evolution of reserves and ON RRP balances, and what this means for the timeline for QT.

Speakers:

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4555154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Fast then slow

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 09 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: US Macro & Market Update

We recently hosted a discussion on the US with analysts from across Global Research. Topics included the US economic outlook, Fed policy and the latest views on rates and the dollar.

 

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

 

Moderator

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

This was recorded on 06 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543411-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553781-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4549566-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Riding the EM FX relief rally

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4552508-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: The probability of something that never happened

The price of oil has remained relatively subdued since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. This is consistent with our baseline view that oil price will exit the year at $86 before declining to an average of $83 next year amid slowing global economic growth. The main risk to our view is that a broadening of the conflict could close the Strait of Hormuz or that a more general Middle Eastern conflagration could ignite retaliatory responses from major oil producing countries. Crucially, for all of recorded history, despite many threats, the strait has never been actually closed off and oil continued to flow. Iran could retaliate in other ways, such as disrupting shipping in the Persian Gulf. But even the “Tanker War” of the 1980s—when 259 oil tankers were attacked between 1984 and 1987—did not impair Gulf oil exports or substantially increase world oil prices. Similarly, a 1970s style oil embargo by the Gulf oil producing states appears unlikely because two-thirds of GCC’s oil exports today are purchased by Asian clients and, importantly, the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the region requires sustained absence of conflict.

Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4547564-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX : Dollar dissonance

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the recent stall in the US dollar’s uotrend, and also the outlook for key central bank meetings next week.

 

Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy 
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy 
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4546539-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Global upstream oil and gas capex on target to reach $545bn in 2023

Global upstream oil and gas spending is tracking $545 billion this year, up from $497 billion in 2022, based on data from 140 public companies and our estimate of private operators’ spending. The latest investment guidance is up 82% from 2020 lows, although still 22% below the 2014 peak. Similarly, producers are on track to complete 59,000 wells globally this year—a 33% decline from the 88,000 new wells put into production in 2014. Yet, total oil supply has risen by about 4% during 2014-2023. For scale, a 103% surge in capex between 2006 and 2014 resulted in a 7% global crude and condensate production growth. A key reason behind the stable production profile despite both investment and well activity levels dropping significantly since 2014 is the declining unit costs due to efficiency and productivity gains. While we find today’s ~$500 billion investment in upstream O&G supply healthy, we estimate that capital spend needs to stay at the current level in order to satisfy demand in 2030.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519242-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

EM Fixed Income: Are rates cheap enough?

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 26 October 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: Exploring macro tensions and safe-haven demand

Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and James Nelligan discuss (a) macro tensions for FX stemming from improving momentum in China / Europe and a less aggressive Fed on the one hand, and rising US yields and escalating geopolitics on the other, and (b) why a flip in bond-equity correlations should result in greater safe-haven demand in currencies benefitting USD and CHF.

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4538860-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

Global Commodities: The constraints on risk premium

At $93/bbl today, Brent oil price is about $7 overvalued vs its estimated fair value—an appropriate premium given the uncertainty. But beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains that large inventory draws observed in 3Q23 will transition to a largely balanced market in 4Q23 (our model oscillates between 100 kbd build and 100 kbd draw) with Brent exiting the year at $86. Strange as it might seem, since 1967, with the exception of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, none of the other 10 major military conflicts involving Israel resulted in a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, during conflicts involving a major regional oil producer, oil traded at a wide $7-14/bbl premium to its fair value for an extended period. Currently, oil flows have not yet been affected, with limited risk of future supply losses, in our view. All significant parties in the region have powerful incentives to avoid the widening of the war. And so far they have acted accordingly.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2023. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4535649-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.