Analysts from J.P. Morgan Global Research take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.
Episodes
Friday Feb 02, 2024
Friday Feb 02, 2024
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals
We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid economic growth momentum, Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 mbd last year, delivering a 1.2 mbd growth vs 0.8 mbd expected at the start of 2023. The supporting factors that boosted oil demand growth in 2023 are fading, but there are few signs that China’s oil demand is slowing. We project the world’s top crude importer to consume an additional 530 kbd of oil in 2024, accounting for a third of the 1.5 mbd growth in global oil demand and its single largest source. Our constructive outlook on demand requires an increased call on refining output however China’s dominance in global refining activity growth will likely ease in 2024.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Tuesday Jan 30, 2024
Tuesday Jan 30, 2024
Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the ongoing global yield compression and implications for carry currencies.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 30 Jan 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557694-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566567-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Monday Jan 29, 2024
Monday Jan 29, 2024
Francis Diamond and Allan Monks discuss the upcoming February BoE meeting and views on UK rate markets. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates, but given the clear shift in inflation surprises and perceived risks since November, we believe the Bank will almost certainly make a dovish pivot that puts future easing higher up on the agenda than before. August is our current call, although its hard to argue too strongly against June. The BoE will not shut the door on a potential May cut, but we think it will also not want to encourage expectations for an easing that early. We keep a bullish duration view at the front end of the UK curve via longs in 1Yx1Y SONIA and money market curve flatteners.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614062-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Rates strategist Jay Barry and Chief US economist Mike Feroli discuss the outlook for policy in the week ahead, including expectations for the FOMC meeting, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the implications for US rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611261-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4613934-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss recent policy developments in China and discuss the dovish tide that is envelopingall DM central bank ex-BoJ.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 Jan 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611445-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Friday Jan 26, 2024
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
There are two interesting supply dynamics happening in two very different commodities that are both grabbing a lot of attention in early 2024: copper and natural gas (both dry gas and LNG). In copper, a tightening across the upstream concentrate market is happening much quicker than expected and appears to be lurching towards a breaking point. The boosted risk of margin-induced production cuts at smelters could lead to a deeper refined copper deficit over the course of this year and continues to boost our conviction in a bullish trajectory for prices. In natural gas we cover some of the recent whipsaw moves in US natural gas prices and whether it is enough to change near-term production estimates out of the US. Additionally, we address today’s announcement by the Biden Administration of a temporary halt in approvals for US LNG export facilities and its potential impact to the global market.
This podcast was recorded on Jan. 26, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582924-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606708-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4591164-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Thursday Jan 25, 2024
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Monday Jan 22, 2024
Monday Jan 22, 2024
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent developments in US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and their views going forward.
Speakers
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 22, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Monday Jan 22, 2024
Monday Jan 22, 2024
In this episode, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting and current views on Euro area rate markets, intra-EMU spreads, swap spreads and Euro volatility.
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4607876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Jan 19, 2024
Friday Jan 19, 2024
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid an early year challenge to the bond market’s disinflation optimism.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4605640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.