At Any Rate

Global Rates: Pardon my French

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest themes in US interest rate derivatives markets.

 

Speakers: 

Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy 
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4722179-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

US Rates Strategy: Unpacking a big week for US rates

On this episode, Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent events in Europe on Treasury market liquidity, as well as their takeaways from the downside surprise in May CPI and their thoughts ahead for US rates and inflation markets. They are hesitant to take too much signal from the weakness in core inflation in May and still expect the first rate cut in November.

Speakers:

Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725284-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: French election still a main focus for European rate markets, UK election and BoE much less impactful

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. French politics is the focus for Euro rate markets and with the situation fluid they discuss what has changed over the past few days and how that impacts on view on French spread and other intra-EMU spreads. They also touch on UK political developments this past week and the June BoE meeting.

Speakers:

Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy

Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723970-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Another Thirteen

Acknowledging the notable slowdown in drilling activity, we now expect annual US crude oil output, including condensate, to increase by 362 kbd in 2024 and 395 kbd in 2025. While oil recovered per foot drilled in the US shale basins fell 12% since its peak in 2021, operational efficiencies, which began being implemented more widely last year, are more than offsetting declining productivity and relatively low rig count. On annualized basis, we project another 400 kbd growth in US NGLs supply in 2024 and an additional 350 kbd in 2025. Combined, we estimate total US oil liquids production will grow by 762 kbd in 2024 and 745 kbd in 2025.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research 

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708264-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Reading the tea leaves

Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the implications of US inflation and the FOMC, as well as recent vol shocks for the dollar and FX markets.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Deciphering the multitude of volatility drivers

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui analyse the multiple global and EM-specific drivers of rise in volatility hitting EM markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX, Rates & Economics: French election: Thoughts on outcome and implications on rates/ FX markets

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan discuss the path ahead for the French lower house elections in the coming weeks as well as implications for FX / rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on 11 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4721981-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723118-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723362-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference Key Takeaways

Take a seat at the table as we unpack key takeaways from our recently concluded annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference in London and highlight top themes in this special episode of At Any Rate.

 

Speakers:

Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM

Ayomide Mejabi, Frontier Market Strategy

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy

Gbolahan Taiwo, Chief Economist, Africa (ex-SA)

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717869-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Assessing carry trade deleveraging and G10 FX views from here

We assess the impact of this week’s FX carry trade deleveraging, as well as FX views from here after the ECB, BoC and US payrolls, ahead of key event risk next week.

Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy 
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4719772-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: The unnecessary taper tantrum

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research

 

The market’s verdict on the OPEC+ decision was likely behind the 6% fall in oil prices this week. The producers’ group extended its 3.6 mbd of supply reductions through 2025, but it also announced plans to gradually unwind 2.2 mbd of voluntary cuts starting in October, subject to market conditions. On paper, this additional production would clearly be bearish for prices. However, there are important details that need to be taken into account. For one, a number of key OPEC producers are already pumping well above their assigned quotas. Second, many OPEC producers are already operating at close to full capacity. We maintain our view that summer inventory draws should be enough to get Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September, but are aware that OPEC+’s intention—even if aspirational—to produce more, might have a psychological effect on consumers’ willingness to replenish inventories.

 

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717071-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.