At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Supply insecure—China’s imports of commodities at all-time highs and likely to stay that way

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

China’s imports of commodities are at all-time highs, in stark contrast to the wider, faltering macroeconomic growth in the country. As the world’s single largest consumer of commodities, China has three main sources of vulnerability: (i) it has abundant domestic resources of coal and rare earth but is relatively poor in others, (ii) with only 7% of the world’s arable land and limited fresh water resources, the country feeds about 20% of the world’s population, and (iii) most commodities are shipped to China via eight marine choke points—including the Strait of Malacca—over which the US has significant influence. To ensure the long-term security of strategic commodities, China is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: (i) more efficient development of domestic mineral and agricultural resources, (ii) establish control of resource bases overseas via equity stakes and partnerships, and (iii) build-up of strategic stockpiles. Given the increasing share of China-owned assets in the country’s total commodity import mix and China’s goal to boost its strategic reserves, the nation’s imports of natural resources will continue to grow.

 

This podcast was recorded on 3 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4466326-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Global Rates & Economics: State of play after the first round of the French election, UK election update

Strategists Francis Diamond, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Aditya Chordia discuss the first round of voting in the French elections, implications for the outcome after the second round and the recent reaction in French spreads and broader European fixed income markets. They also touch briefly on the upcoming UK general election.

 

This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736223-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736551-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4732647-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Strong dollar and other macro FX themes in 2H

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, Antonin Delair, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the the main macro FX themes for 2H. They highlight a constructive USD backdrop, yield compression, US elections and policy RV as the main themes.

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: FX volatility bumpy, but capped in H2

Arindam Sandilya, Lorenzo Ravagli, Ladislav Jankovic, and Juan Duran-Vara discuss the H2 outlook for FX Derivatives.

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: If you need oil this summer, who you gonna call?

Our long-held view remains unchanged: we project Brent oil to average $84/bbl in the third quarter and hit another $90 by August/September, underpinned by our expectations that global demand will outpace supply in the summer quarter. Demand indicators look solid, especially in the all-important US market and peak refinery demand for crude is now firmly in place and should last through August. Meanwhile, OPEC waterborne crude exports are trending at their lowest monthly volumes in two years so far in June. Crucially, despite the 10% price rally, the short base by speculative investors has not been closed, with more room for financial demand to recover.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

US Rates: Stablecoins are gaining ground

Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and Pankaj Vohra discuss what is driving/will drive the growth of the stablecoin market YTD and going forward, how their growth could have implications for the Treasury market, and other complementary developments in this space.

 

Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, Short Duration Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4698337-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: Digging into Treasury market liquidity trends

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe white discuss trends in Treasury market liquidity. Trading volumes have increased, market depth and microstructure data indicate improved liquidity as well, but off-the-run dispersion has increased, and dealer inventories have climbed recently. Overall Treasury market functioning seems to be sitting at post-pandemic averages.

 

Speakers:

Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy

Phoebe White, US Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2024.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724030-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX: Parsing more policy & growth divergence for FX

This week, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman & James Nelligan break down the currency implications from a range of policy meetings and key economic data across Europe and Australia/New Zealand.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728769-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Got Commodities this summer?

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

 

We believe the recent pullback in commodities is just that—a pullback—and we continue to see a 10% appreciation in the broader BCOM Commodities index by year-end. Underpinning our constructive BCOM and sectorial recommendations is the expectation that in addition to supportive fundamentals over the next two and a half months commodities would be likely exposed to a confluence of forces, among them weather-related volatility and pests, but also European Parliamentary elections, China’s Third Plenum and the onset of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 June2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717019-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites ‒ Asia Credit Conference vibes, Data Center deliberations and credit derivative refamiliarization

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

 

Speakers:  

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research

Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 18 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720176-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704389-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.