At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Gas be nimble, gas be quick…but there will be repercussions

In the past two weeks, US Henry Hub and European TTF have rallied in price significantly. With US prices at one point climbing above $2.70/MMBtu and TTF crossing 35 EUR/MWh, we will discuss the drivers of these price moves higher, including the reduction in supply currently in place - both in US production and global LNG supply -  and the fundamental changes that we expect to see as a result of the recent price rally. Additionally, we will dive deeper into headlines surrounding Golden Pass and the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, which could have implications to our current price forecast.

 

Speakers:  

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4705416-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Are we all hiding in the same place?

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4707597-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites ‒ Credit colour from last week’s Global Markets Conference in Paris

Take a seat at the table as Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Andrew Crook, Managing Director, Head of European High Yield, Leveraged Loan and Convertible Sales and Global Head of Macro Credit Sales and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, unpack the top takeaways for credit markets from the recently concluded J.P. Morgan Global Markets Conference in Paris.

 

Speakers
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research
Andrew Crook, Head of European High Yield, Leveraged Loan and Convertible Sales and Global Head of Macro Credit Sales
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research

 

This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666611-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Key Macro Takeaways from J.P. Morgan’s Global Markets Conference in Paris

J.P. Morgan hosted its annual Global Markets Conference in Paris on 15-17 May. Judging from the speaker comments and questions from the audience, participants at the conference appeared rather sanguine about the US and global economic outlook. In this podcast the Macro Research team discusses their key takeaways from the sessions and conversations with investors, which covered a range of topics including the prospects for US soft landing, potential divergence between the Fed and other central bank easing cycles, geopolitical risks and the market implications of the US elections. 

 

Speakers
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Jay Barry, Co-head of US Rates Strategy
Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, Co-head of FX Strategy
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704635-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700508-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Commodities: Copper fireworks overshadow a looser-than-expected refined market in China

LME copper prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, jumping above $11,000/mt this morning with COMEX prices in the US still trading at a significant premium to the global LME benchmark. The massive widening of the COMEX/LME copper arb over the last week is more about positioning and inventory tightness in the US specifically and not reflective of a tight broader global refined copper market just yet. We remain structurally medium-term bullish on copper prices over the next two years as constrained mine supply is not going to alleviate quickly but current price levels are running well ahead of global refined market fundamentals at the moment. China’s refined market appears loose as demand is being deferred and delayed amid high copper prices while refined supply has stayed strong. A temporary correction in copper prices could be healthy to kick start Chinese demand and lay the groundwork for another eventual push even higher.

 

Speaker: Gregory Shearer

 

This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4701703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Economics: Significant Yen weakness from domestic policy trade-offs is a future risk

Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita and Junya Tanase discuss the outlook for Japanese macro, BoJ policy and the Yen.

Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ayako Fujita, Economic and Policy Research Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research

This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691315-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4702881-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: The June-September Treasury futures roll

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle

Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy 
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research

This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4694204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Economics: Central Bank Policy Divergence

In lieu of our regular FX podcast, we present a joint webinar recorded earlier this week. Take a seat at the table as  Bruce Kasman, Ayako Fujita, Greg Fuzesi , Meera Chandan and Samantha Azzarello unpack potential policy divergence among global central banks, top macro themes and their impact on future policy rates and currencies.

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Bruce Kasman, Global Head of Economic Research
Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan Economist
Greg Fuzesi, Euro Area Economist  

Moderator: Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research

 

This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4695538-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for May

J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.

Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist

 

This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and US Rates: If you think this is over, then you’re wrong

Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the impact of the FOMC meeting and April employment report on the US rates and FX markets. They also delve into this week’s Treasury refunding announcement, Japan FX interventions, an analysis of the best bullish and bearish-USD expressions and the medium-term outlook for USDJPY and EURUSD.

Speakers:

Jay Barry

Meera Chandan

This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.