At Any Rate

Global FX: Sticking to the funders over cyclicals FX view

Our Global FX Strategists James Nelligan, Patrick Locke & Junya Tanase unpack the FX implications from a loaded week that featured the Fed and BoJ, and discuss implications for low-yielding currencies against more cyclical FX going forward.

This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4798218-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: All systems go for precious metals

Following a 50bp interest rate cut by the Fed this week gold has risen to another new all time high above $2,600/oz. Strong physical demand from China and central banks supported gold prices over the past two years but investor flow, and retail-focused ETF builds in particular, continue to hold the key to a further sustained rally over the upcoming Fed cutting cycle.  Silver also looks compelling with investor length less subscribed than gold and industrial metals now regaining upwards momentum on stronger demand signals from China and macro tailwinds from the start of the Fed easing cycle.

 

Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 20, Sept. 2024

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: EM after the Fed - Getting by with a little help from our friends

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: Schrodinger’s Cut

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their thoughts on US interest rate derivatives markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

 

Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 9/16/24.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792463-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

We discuss the FX market implications from the upcoming FOMC and other G10 central bank meetings.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy 
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792216-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Agricultural Markets Update – set for a seasonal recovery ahead

Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

Agri commodity markets have been in short covering mode since early August after investors established an historic short seasonal position. Prices are now entering a period of strongly positive seasonality, while the fundamental outlook is trending increasingly constructive. Weather risks persist, and dry conditions are shaving yield potential off US crops, reducing European wheat production, threatening Brazil’s sugar output and raising concern for South American soybean planting delays. Meanwhile geopolitical premium is back on the table...just as the FAO Food Price Index had started to stabilize.

This podcast was recorded on 13 Sept. 2024

.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792960-0,, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4793313-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4785154-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

 

Spreadbites: This Summer's Vol Spike and What It Says About Market Conditions and 'The Homestretch'

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research to unpack the key takeaways from the recently concluded European High Yield  Leveraged Finance conference in London.

 

Speakers
Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research
John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on September 11, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790088-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Euro area government bond demand update

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis in their recently published update on Euro area government bonds demand.

 

This podcast was recorded on10 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4787964-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX & Rates: US rates and FX market after a rollercoaster Friday

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry talk through the US employment data, Fedspeak and the outlook for US rates/ FX markets following a rollercoaster Friday.

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789008-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790005-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Global Commodities: The art of keeping up with yesterday and avoiding tomorrow

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

2 mbd of crude inventory draw since the end of June bring global stocks to their lowest level since 2017, confirming the resilience of global demand. Yet a substantially softer balance in 2025 is forcing the market to search for a price that will prevent OPEC+ from bringing volumes that are not needed. At current levels of inventories, we believe oil is $10 under-valued and under-owned. Yet, given oil’s significant underperformance in August, we shave our 4Q24 price forecast from $85 to $80, but keep 2025 unchanged at $75.

 

This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept. 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779731-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.