At Any Rate

EM Fixed Income: EM assets into the US election

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss how EM asset markets are looking ahead of the US election and takeaways from the recent Washington conferences.

This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. 

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

U.S. Rates - Counting down to November

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the impact of the upcoming election on Rates markets, as well as Fed’s balance sheet policy and monetary policy expectations.

Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist

This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818573-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4823172-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Give EM Credit Where It’s Due EM Corporate 2025 Default Outlook

In this podcast, we discuss our recently launched default outlook for 2025. Our 2025 EM Corporate HY default forecast is 2.7%. If achieved, it will be another below average default year, extending the improvement trend from 7-14% default rates between 2021-2023. Such default rates would also be modestly below DM credit. Regionally, we expect 3.0% for Asia, 3.4% for Latin America, 2.8% for EM Europe, and 0.5% for Middle East & Africa. In this discussion, we cover the drivers of our sanguine expectations, differentiation by region and segment, as well as risks to our base case expectations.  

 

Speakers
Yang-Myung Hong, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy

Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 25 Oct 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and European Economics: Gauging the EUR growth, policy and FX impact from potential tariffs

A lot of ink has been spilled on the impact of US elections on the euro. But a less discussed question is what the Euro area response to mitigate any such trade conflict will be. Greg Fuzesi and Meera Chandan discuss the economic, policy and FX impact, if tariff risks are realized.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4826699-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Gold gains as upcoming US election restokes the “debasement trade”

The BCOM Precious Metals Index has continued its year-to-date rally in October, gaining nearly 4% so far this month despite higher US yields and a stronger US dollar.  The continued outperformance in gold and silver comes as markets price in greater odds of a Trump presidency and possible Republican sweep, fueling precious metals length as a hedge against the potential for amplified US fiscal concerns, inflationary concerns and geopolitical/trade tensions.  In this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research, discusses the key takeaways from the 2024 LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference and shares an update on the precious markets as we approach the upcoming US election.

 

Speaker:

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 25, Oct. 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4819507-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites ‒ All-in Yields, the Election, Private Credit and Alternative Strategies for Sourcing Carry in the ‘Just Enough World’

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.

 

Speakers: 

Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research

Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4811273-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: Fed funds as a gauge of liquidity?

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the Fed’s new tool, Reserve Demand Elasticity, and its use of the fed funds rate and aggregate reserves to measure in real-time the ampleness of reserves in the banking system. They also discuss some interesting findings from MMFs’ September holdings.

Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: London Sugar Week Takeaways – weather and policy driving an uncertain outlook

During this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Tracey Allen, head of agricultural research will discuss takeaways from London Sugar Week and share an update on the state of agri markets and risks to watch out for following World Food Day on 16 October.

 

Speaker:

Tracey Allen, Head of Global Agricultural Research

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 18, October, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818658-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810174-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Dollar strength and other highlights from the week

We run through takeaways from the week thinking about the ECB, UK data, Asia FX and Antipodean FX, as well as dollar outperformance.

Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4821551-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: ECB to cut but no fireworks, UK budget concerns appear overblown

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting, funding dynamics and swap spreads as the UK budget at the end of this month.

This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817582-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.