At Any Rate

Global FX & US Rates – Fed, banking sector, and the G10 inflation landscape for rates & FX

US strategists Patrick Locke & Phoebe White discuss this week’s Fed meeting, bank sector borrowing, and G10 inflation trends.

This podcast was recorded on 24th March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369375-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Everything everywhere all at once

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the  impacts of the recent global banking stress on EM fixed income.

 

Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist 

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4368246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX: Currencies among rising credit stress

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook following the eruption of banking sector stress in the US and Europe.

 

Speakers

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 17 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4363526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Gold soars, oil swoons and gas shrugs as financial stress spooks markets

The sudden failure of SVB and Signature Bank forced a rethink about the health of the broader economy and spooked markets. Brent lost $11/bbl (15%) of its value over the last 10 days to settle at $74.70 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since December 2021. In the US, WTI futures tumbled to $66 in New York on Friday. For comparison, over the same period, S&P 500 equity futures slumped 3.6%, and copper prices edged 3.3% lower. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic stayed largely flat, while gold rose near 7%. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Greg Shearer to discuss the volatility in commodity markets and the outlook for 2Q23.  

 

Speakers 
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on Mar. 17, 2023.
 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4358592-0, and  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359550-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. 

EM Fixed Income: Unknown unknowns in a late-cycle environment

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM assets of the large vol shock and increasingly late-cycle market moves.

Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist

Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist

This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4362300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: Takeaways from the J.P. Morgan 14th EM Corporate Conference

J.P. Morgan held its 14th Global EM Corporate Conference in Miami (March 6-8).  We provide a 15 minute summary of the main takeaways, highlight of survey results, and regional color from the conference.   

 

Speakers:

YM Hong, Head of EM Corporate Strategy

Alisa Meyers, EM Corporate Strategy

Natalia Corfield, Latin America Corporate Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4356352-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: Chinese jet fuel demand key to global oil demand growth

Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March. 

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4354826-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global FX: It’s complicated

FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss a round-up of FX views from recent meetings, refresh the global FX recessionary playbook, and look at recent developments for USD, EUR, JPY & CAD.

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357220-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Big Data & AI Strategies: Macro Risk News Report - VXY Mariner Edition

We developed a news-based machine learning framework for finding what themes are driving the FX vols. The framework also complements traditional techniques of judging if FX vol is rich or cheap and is currently suggesting that FX vol as an aggregate is mildly cheap.

The framework currently identifies inflation as the most significant concern that investors remain most sensitive to, with commodities, central banks, market conditions and rates also been notable factors on that cross-section of news flows and FX vol beta to that news, but jobs only nominal / negligible.

We monitor 28 SmartTag categories of macro risk across global news reports and capture their changes in volume and anxiety (inverted tone). We test the sensitivity of each category against the VXY (as a proxy to FX risk) and identify what investors seem to be currently most sensitive to. Any category that tests significantly positive we mark as a “Category of Concern” (CoC) and measure how much it is contributing to (or reducing) our inferred risk.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4335589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX and US rates - The uncomfortable calm before the storm

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX US and rates markets heading into key US event risk.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351568-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.