At Any Rate

Global FX: Rates divergence to sustain dollar strength

Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies after a heavy week of DM central bank meetings.

 

Speakers:  Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan & Patrick Locke

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515282-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Commodities: Bullish oil cues begin to exhaust even as Russia temporarily bans motor fuel exports

After reaching our target of $90 in September, further price gains may be limited as we believe most bullish cues—both macro and micro—for the market have been exhausted for now. Our end-year target remains $86/bbl, while acknowledging that the path to this target can take different shapes. Relative to July, macro sentiment in September might be close to an inflection as the focus shifts to higher-for-longer US rates and sticky inflation. With pump prices surging and a seasonal travel peak behind us, oil demand risks are shifting to the downside and the support of China’s pent-up demand recovery is likely behind us. Russian crude oil exports rebounded by more than twice than expected in September and fuel exports booked prior to the ban continue to flow while China’s oil product exports are also rising. Oil positioning is no longer short. Our view remains that sharp inventory draws in 3Q23 will transition into a slight build during the final four months of the year. Preliminary stock observations suggest a build in global oil inventories in the first week of September.  

Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Rates - European inflation markets, oil won’t boil breakevens

Francis Diamond and Frida Infante discuss their recently published Monthly Inflation Outlook outlining our latest views on European and UK inflation.

 

This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484727-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Rates: BoJ, Fed and BoE meetings and read across to European rate markets

Fabio Bassi and Francis Diamond discuss views on the BoE meeting and potential market impacts as well as any read across to European markets from the Fed and BoJ next week.

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4514473-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX - FX views going into G10 central bank Superweek

The FX strategy team discusses FX implications of the latest ECB outcome, as well as the upcoming Fed, BoJ and European central bank meetings. 

 

Speakers
Meera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy

Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

Katsuhiro Oshima, Japan Macro Research

James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 September 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4513289-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Rates: Scandinavia monthly interest rate outlook: The final step?

Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss their recently published Scandinavia Monthly Interest Rate Outlook outlining their views on the Swedish and Norwegian Interest Rates markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506279-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global FX : Take-aways for US rates and FX pre- ECB and Fed

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the implications of US resilience on US rates and FX markets heading into the ECB and Fed September  meetings.

This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509235-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509511-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506527-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Rates - Euro rate markets - ECB to hike or skip in September?

Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting in September and potential implications for Euro area rate markets and intra-EMU spreads.

 

This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

EM Fixed Income: EM implications of higher-for-longer US rates

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506420-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Commodities: $90 in September, $86 in December

Brent crude futures settled above $90 on Tuesday, for the first time this year. In the end, the extension of Saudi’s 1 mbd supply cut alongside Russia’s 300 kbd reduction in exports for an additional three months was needed to get the price there. Although we hold a constructive view on oil prices in the short term, we still don’t see oil prices breaching $100 in 2023, absent a major geopolitical event. As the market transitions from a large inventory draw in 3Q23, most visibly in the US, into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back toward the mid $80s. Both demand and supply will likely contribute to looser balances in the final quarter of the year, but the key to our lower price forecast is our outlook on the trajectory of demand in 4Q23. The softening in balances should be seen first in forward looking prices: in crude differentials for October loadings and softer structure at the front. 

 

Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 8 September 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.