At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Are oil prices $10 too low or $20 too high?

Global oil inventories are visibly increasing, yet prices have remained surprisingly stable, with market opinion divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. We anticipate prices to stay within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end. The global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 mbd, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance. Yet, despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range. Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity. The US administration may begin repurchasing oil for the SPR as early as August. Meanwhile, US shale wellhead breakeven prices, assuming zero return, are estimated at around $47 WTI.

 

Speaker

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4977650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Talking through the tariff rulings, payrolls and fiscal threads

Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the latest CIT ruling on tariffs, expectations for the upcoming payrolls report and the recent fiscal-driven rates moves  with implications for the broad dollar and FX markets.

 

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4994884-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: ECB preview and long end curve thoughts

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on Euro area rate markets ahead of the June ECB meeting and also discuss thoughts on the long end of EUR and GBP curves.

 

Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4998044-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income Focus: Even the uncertainty has uncertainty

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

 

This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX & Global Rates: Term premia rising: implications for rates and FX

JPM Strategists Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss rising term premium across DM government bond markets, the passage of the House tax bill, rising tariff risks, and what this means for rates and FX markets.

 

Speakers: 
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989466-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991726-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989990-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Scandinavian interest rate update

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments in Scandinavian interest rate markets and important drivers looking ahead.

 

Speakers

Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

Frida Infante, Rates Strategy 

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991719-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

US Rates: SLR reform: Helpful, but not a panacea

Speakers: 

Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy

 

Ipek Ozil and Teresa Ho discuss the potential SLR reform, its implementation timeline, and its potential impact on the rates markets.

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4987601-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates: Analysing Eurex and US futures roll

Speakers: 

Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy

 

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Jun25/Sep25 bond futures rollover.

 

This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971531-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4984252-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: FX after the tariff reset

This week, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the FX implications across tariff de-escalation, US fiscal developments, data surprises and central bank meeting risk.

 

Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4983958-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Commodities: Base metals are back from the brink but not fully in the clear

A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve and reduced recession probabilities has diminished the downside tail risks to both base metals demand and prices. While prices could continue to run higher in the near-term amid a further extension of Chinese demand front-loading following the 90-day tariff reprieve, we are cautious of the longevity of this extension and still think a more bearish reckoning is likely in 2H25 as all the pull-forward in demand eventually drives a rather significant hangover.

 

Speaker
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research 

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4982649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.