At Any Rate

At Any Rate – EM Fixed Income Focus: On tariff watch, again

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2025.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Emerging Markets: The EM Fixed Income Sustainable Debt Asset Class

Jonny Goulden, Virginia Martin Heriz, Lydia Harvey and Alisa Meyers discuss the latest annual report on the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926303-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets. The past few weeks have seen divergent performances in DM inflation breakevens with HICP swaps across the curve rising following the German fiscal announcement whilst other DM breakevens fell. Outside the HICP space, front-end breakevens appear cheap on a valuation basis.

 

Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922930-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting tariffs (again)

Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook in the lead up to the pivotal April 2nd tariff announcement.

 

This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939751-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

EM Fixed Income: Monetary policy struggles to be heard above the noise

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937641-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Commodities: Oil vigilantes in action

Speaker: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

Oil prices have been trading below their fair value since last September, a trend we attribute to the actions of Oil Vigilantes—a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will step in to stabilize the market and bolster prices. Yet, despite Brent prices trading near their lowest levels since December 2021, the OPEC alliance has chosen to proceed with its plan to gradually increase production starting in April. For the alliance to alter its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a substantial increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be necessary. So far, none of these conditions have materialized—the downgrades in US GDP have been nearly offset by growth upgrades in Europe and China, keeping our demand projections steady. While OECD inventories are 4% above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain 3% below their five-year averages.

 

This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937529-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

US Rates: Loonie Tunes

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.

 

Speakers

Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivative Strategy      

Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivative Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4930738-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan take stock of the bearish-USD view, look at new ways of framing the USD response to tariffs, discuss how European FX is responding to recent geopolitical and fiscal news, and finally preview upcoming central bank meetings next week.

 

Speakers
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4934024-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the seismic shift in German fiscal policy and the repricing in European rates markets against a backdrop of ongoing tariff uncertainty.

 

Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4935267-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Commodities: Incorporating Russian gas increase into the 2026 European balance

Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.

 

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.